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Anthony Masiello Profile picture
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Sep 29 • 4 tweets • 2 min read
The gradual move NE on the ECMWF for LF location tomorrow:
Mostly due to starting point/speed off FL. *Image not updated for 12z run yet: Image
whoops (ECMWF)... 🙄 ImageImage
that crazy #Ian and its propensity to be east... ImageImage

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More from @antmasiello

Anthony Masiello Profile picture
Jun 23, 2020
[#severe climo thread] Is there something about late May? I totaled all severe reports for NY, NJ, PA, DE, MD and DC for the months of April to July (data source SPC, 1955-2018). For severe wind reports, they increase overall from April to July (but notice late May rise). (1/8)
In terms of severe hail, notice the peak in reports happens in late May to early June with the 10-day average peak right around the infamous date of 5-31. (2/8)
Tornadoes overall gradually increase from the start to the end of the period. However, the notorious period of the end of the May into early June again sticks out with peak in daily counts and rolling averages. (3/8)
Read 8 tweets
Anthony Masiello Profile picture
Jan 1, 2020
Here's a 10-day mean SST in Reanalysis that spans the month of December in 3 blocks. It is scaled to be ~ 80°F-90°F. Of course you've heard about Australia's warmth. The +SSTa have intensified near WA/NT/QLD. Some SST approaching 90°F there.
EPS TC forecast in the next 10 days. This is why the RMMs are forecast to spike into phase 4-6.
Information from BOM on their tropical season: bom.gov.au/cyclone/climat…
Read 8 tweets
Anthony Masiello Profile picture
Feb 27, 2019
Profiles tonight are marginal all around but worth mentioning. Not a lot of sunshine today and it has been cold. Profiles are somewhat supportive of spotty freezing drizzle. Not certain if sufficiently moist. Doesn't look like it goes into AM commute either with wind shift.
Here's an example NAM sounding for tonight. Not all modeling looks like this.
Here's what the frontal area looks like now:
Read 10 tweets

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