Thread by @wartranslated

Day 219, September 30. Summary of #Arestovych and #Feygin daily broadcast, kindly brought to you by Atis: @savaadaak

wartranslated.com/day-219-septem…

🔥 Battlefield update:
🔥 Lyman:
conflicting information, according to some sources – there exists a road, that’s under 🇺🇦 fire control, other sources say it’s total encirclement.

There are several outcomes – everyone gets captured, 🇺🇦 gets equipment, part gets destroyed or captured, part manages to break through. 🇷🇺 had significant defense built up during 3 weeks, and 🇺🇦 was not having easy time.

Estimated 🇷🇺 size is 2.5k – 5.5k solders, no reserves available.

🔥 Bakhmut:
🇷🇺 losing offensive potential, 🇺🇦 doing some counter-attacks.

🔥 Kherson:
Today 🇺🇦 did a lot of artillery and rocket attacks on west bank. No significant changes.

🔥 Zaporozhye, Dnipro:
🇷🇺 did bombing on civilians and humanitarian column

🔥 Mobilized:
First are already being killed, by some reports they flee on first 🇺🇦 attack. There are no legal means to end 🇷🇺 military service, only end of “special military operation” or death.

🔥 🇧🇾 Belarus:
Some mobilized 🇷🇺 solders are already being sent there.

They might attempt to repeat something, or at least to keep 🇺🇦 forces busy. 🇺🇦 will see everything in advance.

🔥 Moscow events:
On question to discuss annexation, Arestovych responds: “Don’t care. We will keep fighting, regardless. Who cares”.

Putin’s rhetoric of 2 nuclear blasts to end WW2 can be treated as invitation to bomb Kremlin. There wasn’t anything new, 1that hasn’t been mentioned in 22 years of Putin’s ruling, full set of taxi-driver’s topics.

Zelensky announced that he won’t participate in negotiations with Putin.

🔥 NATO:
Joining won’t be immediate, as it’s collective decision of all members, however Stoltenberg’s speech on same day signals that door is open.

This decision wasn’t improvised today, likely it was already being prepared for a while.
Several 🇺🇸 senators announced that nuclear attack on 🇺🇦 is equal to nuclear attack on NATO.
🇨🇦🇪🇪🇱🇻🇱🇹 already expressed support.
Next NATO summit is in July 2023, in 🇱🇹 Vilnius.

All this significantly decreases risk of nuclear attack on 🇺🇦.
Even if there is consensus, it might be hidden in media for a while, as war is about tricking.

🔥 Audio recording:
Let’s hope that 🇺🇸 won’t gather Stallone, Arnold, Bruce Willis, then we are done.

I don’t know if Michael Douglas perhaps likes 🇷🇺, then we might stand a chance, otherwise we are dead.

That’s some interesting understanding of geopolitics.

🔥 Sanctions:
1400 personal sanctions introduced, and this is only beginning.

🔥 Newly mobilized from 🇺🇦 territories:
Expecting that 🇷🇺 will attempt to mobilize remaining people, who still hold 🇺🇦 passport. Suggesting them to avoid that as long as possible, but when mobilized – to use any possible means to negotiate surrender.

There are open frequencies, agencies to assist. 🇺🇦 will not fire at rebellion or those negotiating surrender. There is even special treatment for national regiments, like from Dagestan, Tatarstan, etc. If whole battalion surrenders, it’s much easier than to cross gray zone alone.

🔥 Nord stream:
There was 🇷🇺 anti-sumbarine aircraft nearby, before explosions.

🔥 Ramstein meeting:
on 12th of October. Can expect some updates from 🇨🇳 after that, perhaps some better understanding of situation by end of October.

🔥 Prisoners exchange:

negotiations are ongoing, there are many valuable categories for 🇷🇺 to want exchange.

End of thread.