Thread by @ByMikeBaker

We have been investigating the delayed evacuations in Lee County, where Hurricane Ian's death toll is at 16 rising.

Gov. DeSantis and local leaders said that officials acted swiftly in response to forecasts. But there is much more to the story…

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nytimes.com/2022/09/30/us/…

Lee County had a meticulous plan to help officials decide when to evacuate. We have a copy. Here is an excerpt.

If forecasts indicate a 10% chance of a 6-foot surge, the county proposes evacuations near the water (zone A). Higher surges or probabilities = more evacuations.

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So what did the forecasts show?

Late on Sunday night, the National Weather Service produced a model showing some alarming numbers: A 40% chance of water 6 feet above ground level in parts of Fort Myers Beach. Many other areas also had 10%+ risk.

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That forecast seemed to be enough to trigger evacuations under the county plan, but officials demurred because the center of Ian was headed more north.

Still, even without a direct hit, modeling suggested the wind and surge could be punishing.

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nytimes.com/2022/09/30/us/…

By late Monday night, more areas faced more risk of 6-foot inundation. The weather service said there was a danger of life-threatening storm surge, “with the highest risk from Fort Myers to the Tampa Bay region.”

But Lee County still delayed evacuation.

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A series of other nearby counties (Pinellas, Hillsborough, Manatee, Sarasota and Charlotte) had issued evacuation orders on Monday. Lee County considered doing the same but decided to wait and examine the overnight forecast.

By morning, the odds of disaster had gone up.

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Lee County issued its first evacuation order on Tuesday morning, but even then the county manager touted that it was “small” compared to a previous storm.

The county then expanded the evacuation as the hurricane charged toward shore and the certainty of disaster grew.

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Several people we interviewed felt they had little chance to flee at that point. And the county's tone adopted sudden urgency.

On Tuesday afternoon, they sent out a message:

“Take this threat seriously. The window to act is closing.”

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nytimes.com/2022/09/30/us/…

We are still sorting out the extent of death and destruction in the aftermath of the storm. Here are some detailed graphics of the storm surge flooding around Lee County and images of the devastation.

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nytimes.com/interactive/20…

Today's story was done w/ @FrancesRobles, @sergenyt, @LazaroGamio and others. Editing by @kimmurphy.

We have many reporters on the ground in Florida and South Carolina. Follow their dispatches here: nytimes.com/live/2022/09/3…

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Here is a closer look at the devastation in Fort Myers Beach and other barrier islands, including the story of Mitch Pacyna, 74, who posted messages about the terror of being in the storm, then died while trying to flee for higher ground.

nytimes.com/2022/09/30/us/…

UPDATE: The death toll in Lee County is now up to about 35

nytimes.com/live/2022/10/0…