East Anglia Bylines: Should we believe these extraordinary polls?
For some months, opinion polls have showed a steady, slow shift in support from #Conservative to #Labour. But the last month has seen this accelerate dramatically, and all pollsters agree.
/2 Be careful
Opinion polls are not predictions. They only tell us what people told a pollster on a particular day. Like real election results, they can be influenced by issues in the news at the time. When people are angry about a particular issue they may express that to a poll
/3 but later return to their original position. Poll results also have a margin of error, usually plus or minus 3-4%, so small differences should usually be ignored. It is never wise to give too much weight to a single poll, which can be influenced by random factors.
/4 No likelihood of polling error
However, something remarkable has happened in the last month. Since #LizTruss became #PrimeMinister a month ago, ten polling companies have published 31 polls. None show the predicted “new leader bounce” .
/5 Quite the reverse: the average of these polls is a 14-point lead for #Labour. In the eight polls carried out since #KwasiKwarteng “mini-Budget” on 23 September, that lead has increased to an, almost unprecedented, average of 23 points. #WeNeedAGE

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More from @GivingCuppa

Oct 3
In a response to Richard Murphy's blog posted over the weekend, I think this is very insightful as to why the Tories are being so #cruel over #welfare #benefits and #CostOfLivingCrisis Support (a 🧵)... /1
/2 There is a new comment on The #Tories are now the most #rightwing governing party in the developed world:
"It could be worse than that. Maybe the rather tepid move to Labour in the polls is because of something darker.
Read 22 tweets
Oct 3
/2 "All large-scale vaccinations will close on December 31, 2022."
Health bosses thanked staff and volunteers who have "worked tirelessly" at the centres to protect communities.
Norfolk and Waveney ICS is working with Cambridgeshire Community Services, which ran the centres,
/3 to help staff who worked at the centres get alternative #Employment .
Read 6 tweets
Oct 3
#EastAnglia #care-plan doomed without 10 times the money
The depth of the crisis in adult social care means the government's announced 'Plan for Patients' will struggle to make a difference. #healthcare #NHS #GiveUsACoffeyBreak #TrussFails
/2 Health Secretary #ThérèseCoffey has announced a £500 Million fund to help #patients leave #hospital this coming #winter. Across the country, thousands of elderly patients who are medically fit wait days and sometimes weeks to be discharged from hospital.
/3 The hold-up is usually a failure to organise the next stage of their #care.

The issue is with the #adultsocialcare sector which is in crisis due to a severe shortage of #staff, with a recent Guardian report identifying over 165,000 vacancies.
Read 7 tweets
Oct 3
Good morning
Screeching 45p U-turn
In a story that broke at just after midnight last night, the Sun revealed that Liz Truss had called in Kwarteng for crisis talks and that the pair had drawn up plans to scrap the 45p rate cut.
Fittingly: Today is economy day at the conference
/2 Politico London:
Where we are: As the 2nd day of the Tories’ gathering in Birmingham dawns, #Truss’ first budget is in tatters with its central policy about to be ditched, her first party conference as PM is descending into chaos, and her position is considerably weaker.
/3 How we got here: A Tory rebellion against the decision to scrap the 45p income tax rate — paid by those earning £150,000 or more — rapidly picked up steam on Sunday, with more than a dozen backbenchers breaking rank during the day
Read 5 tweets
Oct 2
Truss refuses to rule out public spending cuts as she defends substance, but not presentation, of mini-budget [and throws Chancellor under the bus]
Here are the main points from the Liz Truss BBC interview with Laura Kuenssberg.
theguardian.com/politics/live/… #TrussFails #TrussMustGo
/2 #LizTruss admits she should have ‘laid ground better’ before mini-budget and says cabinet not consulted about 45% top rate #TaxCuts : Truss defended the government’s controversial mini-budget in its entirety, accepting that the presentation could have been improved
/3 , but giving no indication that she wants to change the substance of it. Asked if she was committed to getting rid of the 45% top rate of tax (the most controversial element), she said she was.
Read 9 tweets
Oct 2
It could easily be true - remember this?

Did Boris Johnson’s easily available phone number pose security risk?
Analysis: texts are a popular route by which hackers can launch malware attacks to bypass corporate – or state – security teams, say experts
In an update to this story I posted over the weekend, this broke yesterday:
#Truss’s personal phone number ‘for sale on the internet’
The Mail on Sunday said the numbers of 26 senior ministers are available on a US website containing stolen data.
#hackers #MI5 #SecurityRisk /1
Read 5 tweets

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