Ukraine SITREP 1. Russian air activity has significantly reduced the last 24hrs, some of which could be weather related, but it has been slowly reducing the last few weeks reportedly due to supply issues.
2. Missile strikes have reduced significantly the last 24hrs. Explosions reported in Dnipro this morning, may be Russian morning strikes.
3. Russian shelling remains much more sporadic in most areas, but with some ongoing heavy exchanges north of Kherson. Russian shelling increased into the Sumy region again in the last 24hrs.
4. The Ukrainian Kharkiv counteroffensive continues to push into Luhansk and re-secures more ground and settlements. We still anticipate a Russian collapse in this region and likely parts of the wider conflict, with morale significantly low amongst troops and some commanders.
5. Chechen leader Ramzan Kadyrov reportedly voiced his frustrations this week with the Russian Senior Command for their failures around Lyman, saying Russia should now use all its available means, including low-yield tactical nuclear weapons.
6. There are reports of other Russian Commanders equally frustrated about Russian losses, failures and resupply issues including Commanders within SOF and Private Contractors.
7. The Ukrainian counteroffensives east of Zaporizhzhia and around Kherson are also making progress, but as with all this activity and increased tempo sensitive operations are underway requiring sensible OPSEC.
8. Russian Naval activity in the Black Sea has reduced slightly with port visits, likely resupply and or rotations. At least one cruise missile carrier remains active and Submarine activity is likely.
9. USAF, RAF and other NATO ISR and Maritime surveillance aircraft continue to monitor activity closely in the Black Sea.
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