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Paul T. Levin Profile picture
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Oct 4 • 3 tweets • 2 min read
I’m out of my depth (sorry) but just by reading the Swedish news, I am beginning to lean strongly towards 🇷🇺 as the culprit for the Nordstream attacks. The 🇸🇪 daily @dagensnyheter has traced the movement of navy ships before the attack & it’s revealing.+
dn.se/sverige/marine…
2 days before the attack, 🇸🇪 navy ships were at the site of the attack, perhaps surveying a submarine. This we knew. Today we learn that they then went all the way to Kaliningrad! (That’s where the 🇷🇺 Baltic fleet is stationed.) WILD guess: they followed the sub back home.+
To those who might lament my naïveté and thought it was obvious that it was Russia all along, of course I had my suspicions. I just preferred to wait for the evidence, which is now beginning to trickle in. (It’s also such a stupid move if it was 🇷🇺 that it was confusing.)

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More from @PaulTLevin

Paul T. Levin Profile picture
Jun 10
The Swedish foreign minister has for the first time presented a new Statement of Foreign Policy mid-year. It contains several passages that 🇹🇷 might appreciate, emphasizing that 🇸🇪 will show solidarity with and “contribute to all of NATO’s security, including that of Turkey.”+
🇸🇪 strongly condemns terrorism & announces that a new, stricter, terrorism law will take effect July 1. The government is also working on additional sharper anti-terror laws. “There should be no doubt that Sweden stands together with likeminded in the fight against terrorism.”+
I view these as quite far-reaching steps for a Social Democratic government to show publicly that it takes Turkish concerns seriously. The government runs the risk of being criticized for bending to the demands of a foreign leader who is not very popular in Sweden right now.+
Read 6 tweets
Paul T. Levin Profile picture
May 20
Arkadaşlar, there are many reasonable concerns that Turks have vis-a-vis Sweden, but there are also a number of misunderstandings floating around in the Turkish press. Let me address a few of them.+
Did Sweden sell anti-tank weapons to the YPG or PKK? No. It seems true that AT-4s have been confiscated in Turkey (Hakkari) & AT-4 is a Swedish-designed weapon. But they are sometimes made elsewhere & I understand that these weapons were neither produced in nor sold by Sweden.+
Has Sweden given 376 million USD to the YPG?
No. That sum probably refers to the entire Swedish aid budget for ALL of Syria 2016-2023. (Some of that money even goes to projects in TURKEY to help municipalities cope with Syrian refugees.)+
yenisafak.com/dunya/isvecli-…
Read 11 tweets
Paul T. Levin Profile picture
May 20
Jag har med behållning lyssnat på Aftonbladets podd Höjd Beredskap med @patrikoksanen @AWollstad ledda av @anderslindberg den senaste tiden. Men tolkningen att vi i detta läge skall ”sitta still i båten” & hoppas att Biden räddar oss från ett 🇹🇷-veto är riskabel.
Vad jag förstår vill 🇺🇸 tvärtom att 🇸🇪🇹🇷🇫🇮 löser frågan sinsemellan. Kanske kan Biden bidra men hans popularitetssiffror är dåliga, midterm-valen är snart & kongressen är inte sugen att ge efter för Ankaras utpressning. Dessutom är 🇹🇷-🇺🇸 relationerna usla.
Jag tror på att det går att hitta en kompromisslösning men för att förstå riskerna, läs @aronlund & @WhiteJennyB i dagens SVD. svd.se/a/0G60vG/illa-…
Read 4 tweets
Paul T. Levin Profile picture
Feb 28
I see many who point out what they see as racist & Eurocentric elements of the outrage over Russia’s war on Ukraine. Vigilance against such tendencies is definitely justified, but some of the criticisms miss something important about why we’re shocked over a war ”in Europe”.🧵
First of all, I don’t doubt that there’s widespread racism out there, both of the explicit fascist kind but also the more ubiquitous “banal” variety. We should fight the former & call out the latter. I have written a book about how anti-Muslim prejudices shaped 🇹🇷-🇪🇺 relations.+
But there are at least two major related reasons why Europeans are particularly outraged about what Russia is doing that have nothing to do with racism. The first has to do with European history, the second with the world order built up in reaction to this past. Hear me out.+
Read 22 tweets
Paul T. Levin Profile picture
Feb 27
Jag har tappat räkningen på hur många videos jag nu sett på förlorade ryska militärkonvojer. Ja, 🇷🇺 har numerärt övertag & ja, de har penetrerat djupt & ja de har ännu inte engagerat alla sina styrkor. Men djävlar vad det kostar dem & vad de kastar bort egna liv & materiel.+
Många kunniga militäranalytiker här kliar sig i håret vg den ryska taktiken. Inte bara en utan flera vansinniga & lönlösa luftlandsättningar djupt in i Ukrainskt territorium. Och usel planering vg försörjningslinjerna + snabb & djup penetrering med pansarfordon är en dålig kombo.
Vidare: De inledde flygoffensiv innan de slagit ut allt mobilt luftvärn & markoffensiv utan att ha fullt luftherravälde. Ryska flygvapnet har ännu inte slagit ut alla turkisktillverkade TB2-drönare, vilka nu kan åsamka stor förödelse på försörjningstrupper som nedan.+
Read 7 tweets
Paul T. Levin Profile picture
Dec 23, 2021
En 🧵 om vad det skulle innebära om Tegnell & Giesecke fick rätt: Om det visar sig att Omicron är väldigt smittsam men relativt mild så skulle det T&G & deras gäng antog från första början nu bli verklighet. Ett virus som i praktiken är omöjligt att stoppa men inte så dödligt.+
Tegnell har hela tiden sagt att vi kommer att få leva med viruset, att det är en maraton, inte en sprint. Och vi ser ju nu att grannländerna inte längre mäktar med att hålla smittan borta längre. Fler länder inför ”lagom” restriktioner. +
Är det då inte just detta som T&G drivit från början? Ser vi inte nu en seger för den svenska modellen?

Nej, det är tyvärr faktiskt precis tvärtom. Låt mig förklara.+
Read 11 tweets

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