Rybar in English Profile picture
Oct 4 14 tweets 2 min read
FWD from Roman Saponkov:

Reasons for the retreat near Kherson. Of the units I am acquainted with, almost all of them reached out, losses are small. The men fought like lions, but this time fortune was not in their favor.

The reasons I see are:
1. No unit rotation. Units of the 126th Brigade have been fighting since March. Soldiers would go on leave for five days at best. Seven months on the front line without rotation. Constant battles, wounds, experienced and seasoned men were bombarded for seven months in a row.
End of August, these same guys knocked out the AFU’s 128th Transcarpathian brigade so badly that they declared mourning. Our men were left at their positions. The Ukrainians rotated out the 128th, brought in additional tank units and a month later knocked us out of our positions.
Miracles do not happen, no matter how heroic our soldiers may be, if the village is defended by 15 people, and the enemy hammers them with attacks and artillery fire for seven months in a row, sooner or later the unit will lose combat effectiveness.
2. Judging by the nature of the losses, the enemy used a tactic of wedging themselves between our strongpoints. Wildly short on infantry, ours sat at the strongholds, i.e. in the villages and plantations.
After months of reconnaissance, the enemy found places to infiltrate between the strongholds. Then came the insertion of mobile units into the gaps that were wedged open.
Our troops were severely strained, the strongpoints held, but the mobile reserves needed to stop the breakthroughs either did not exist, or were insufficient.
The strongholds would stay intact, but instantly, in the first few hours, would find themselves surrounded, fight until they ran out of ammunition and break out under fire.
By the way, the Ukrainians would have so little strength that they weren't even really trying to catch the encircled men, most of them made it back to us.
Weather was bad, neither side used artillery. So it's logical to suppose if we had some BTGs equipped with heavy copters, capable of seeing several kms, the breakthrough would have been stopped. But I have no info that the tankers fought to the last man, please excuse me if so.
3. Guys from the field report en masse that our tactical insignia, i.e. Z and V, was applied to enemy equipment, causing confusion in the first hours of the battle as the front collapsed.
If this is true, it means the enemy has an American network-centric battle management system, where all units on the battlefield are net-linked and marked on computers, even at company level, let alone at battalion-regiment level.
Thus, even a company sergeant in a Humvee, BMP, or T-64 can see on the screen where his own are and where the others are, and he doesn't care what marks are on the armor.
If this is case, then that's very bad news, since that's a qualitatively new level of troop control, and our retreat would be a consequence of losing parity.

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More from @rybar_en

Oct 6
❗️🇷🇺🇺🇦 Battle for Kherson: situaton on the Andriivka and Beryslav sectors
As of 14:00 Kyiv Time, October 6, 2022 Image
After several unsuccessful sorties by Ukrainian mobile groups on Russian positions south of Davydiv Brid and near Piatykhatky, Ukrainian leadership conducted an extraction of dead and wounded men from the 57th Motorized and 60th Infantry brigades.
In the night and morning of October 6, enemy sabotage-recon groups operated on the Kostromka-Bruskinske line and Piatykhatky-Kochkarivka line. Each group had four people from the AFU 46th Aeromobile and 128th Mountain brigades.
Read 6 tweets
Oct 6
❗️🇷🇺🇺🇦 Situation on the Starobilsk direction
as of 12:00 Kyiv Time on October 6, 2022. Image
🔻On the Kupyansk section of the front, the 2nd and 3rd battalions of the AFU 14th Separate Mechanized Brigade attempted to storm Tavilzhanka and Vilshana with artillery fire support. Russian troops repulsed the attack, and the AFU retreated.
Due to numerous failures in this area, the Ukrainian command has changed its tactics: AFU formations plan to capture Vilshana from the south (Synkivka) and from the north (Horobyivka). Air defenses in the area of Lyman-1 are providing cover from air strikes.
Read 10 tweets
Oct 5
❗️🇷🇺🇺🇦 Chronicle of the special military operation:
October 3 - 5, 2022
🔻Starobilsk direction:

In the Kupyansk area, the 2nd and 3rd battalions of the 14th AFU Brigade are advancing towards Orlyanka. At the same time, units of the brigade are pulling up reserves to storm the positions of Russian forces in Tavilzhanka.
In the Svatove sector, Ukrainian forces fortified their positions in Novoplatonivka and Bohuslavka. AFU were able to occupy Makiivka and Grekivka, and are also advancing eastward to Rayhorodka, where the Russian Armed Forces have regrouped.
Read 19 tweets
Oct 5
❗️🇷🇺🇺🇦 Situation in the Mykolaiv-Krivyy Rih direction
As of 12:00 am Kyiv Time on October 6, 2022

Today Ukrainian formations attempted to storm Russian Armed Forces positions in the Posad-Pokrovske, Andriivka, and Beryslav sections of the front. Image
The AFU used the already developed tactic of sending assault groups on all-terrain APCs to probe the defenses of Russian forces where two different defensive units' zones meet. The enemy takes full advantage of the sparsity of defending Russian forces.
All three sections saw massive Russian gun and rocket artillery strikes against the attacking AFU units, eventually pushing them back.
Read 5 tweets
Oct 5
FWD from Hard Blog:

In all fairness, it's worth nothing that this particular case, while egregious, is not systemic. As in all such cases, we are dealing with the human element that broke the system. What's important is that this factor does not consist of one individual.
Servicemen cannot just be abandoned somewhere. There is an officer who is responsible for them. Above that officer is another one. And if lapses in performance become systemic within that substructure (which, from what I can see, is the case), then these wild situations occur.
Someone needs to ask questions of everyone along the hierarchy of that unit.
Read 7 tweets
Oct 5
FWD from Starshe Eddy:

Briefly on the situation in the Kreminna-Svatove area.

The Ukrainians have completed their regrouping and concentrated forces around the town of Pershotravne. Forces from Kupiansk went there and joined with units coming from the Lyman area.
Their numbers are strong, lots of equipment, including Caesars. Most of the equipment is new armored vehicles of Western and Turkish origin.
The main goal is a concentrated blow to Svatove, with plans to move on Kreminna. The hohols, by the way, are spreading news that the main thrust will be on Kreminna, but in my opinion this is false.
Read 4 tweets

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