What’s behind the recent rise of covid cases are in Germany?
It’s not the new variants — yet.
It’s not the new variants — yet.
A number of variants possessing immune evasion mutations have been observed — BA.4.6, BF.*, BA.2.75.*, BQ.1.*
These variants make up around 20% of cases in Germany by Oct 1 — BF.7 (15%), BA.4.6 (3%), as well as other BF.*, BA.2.75.* variants and BQ.1.* (each <1%).
These variants make up around 20% of cases in Germany by Oct 1 — BF.7 (15%), BA.4.6 (3%), as well as other BF.*, BA.2.75.* variants and BQ.1.* (each <1%).
Here’s an overview of the zoo of variants, which all independently acquired the same mutations associated with immune evasion.
(Only some are found in Germany and part of our model.)
(Only some are found in Germany and part of our model.)
https://twitter.com/solidevidence/status/1574040436204871680
One of the fastest moving is BQ.1.1, which combines 5 of these mutations.
BQ.1.1’s fitness advantage is ~10-15% , around the same value that BA.5 had over BA.2 in spring ‘22.
Other variants have fitness 5-10%.
(The exact BQ.1.1 estimates for Germany are still uncertain.)
BQ.1.1’s fitness advantage is ~10-15% , around the same value that BA.5 had over BA.2 in spring ‘22.
Other variants have fitness 5-10%.
(The exact BQ.1.1 estimates for Germany are still uncertain.)
But @TWenseleers has been calculating variant growth rates based on global data with similar results.
https://twitter.com/twenseleers/status/1574070401512128515
Beyond the dynamics of variant proportions, our model calculates the growth rate of total cases (all variants combined).
The overall growth rate depends on many factors, including variants, immunity and behaviour and is less predictable than the share of variants.
The overall growth rate depends on many factors, including variants, immunity and behaviour and is less predictable than the share of variants.
In September the total growth rate climbed from 0 to ~0.06 per day (~50% per week; the latest constant trend is a model precaution, note the wide CI).
In the same period, the share of the aforementioned variants increased to ~20%. This added ~0.01 to the daily growth rate.
In the same period, the share of the aforementioned variants increased to ~20%. This added ~0.01 to the daily growth rate.
So the recent upswing of covid cases seems mostly to be due to variant agnostic effects — seasonality, waning immunity, behaviour.
The projected rise of immune escape variants will add between 0.05-0.15 on top of the growth rate, which is bound to intensify the incoming wave.
The projected rise of immune escape variants will add between 0.05-0.15 on top of the growth rate, which is bound to intensify the incoming wave.
Unfortunately, it looks like we’re set for a sizeable wave of cases due to these twin effects. Further modeling is required to assess how large the wave will be and also what its impact is going to be.
PS. All data from RKI, BQ.1* cases from cov-spectrum.org as they are not yet annotated in the current version of RKI’s data yet. Thanks to all contributors.
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