Ukraine SITREP 1. The Ukrainian counteroffensives in the southeast and south continue to make significant progress, and not just due to Russian logistical failures.
2. The Ukrainian Military Command has carefully crafted these intelligence-led counteroffensives after undertaking significant reconnaissance operations over a long period.
3. Russian resistance is significant in many areas, but the patience, agility and determination of Ukrainian forces is showing through.
4. There is a lot occurring on the battlefield with many sensitive operations underway. As such we shall continue to refrain from detailing operational progress for now due to OPSEC.
5. Russian air/missile strikes continued yesterday and overnight, but Russia continues to now rely heavily on its kamikaze drones.
6. Several strikes were conducted using these drones in the last 24hrs across widespread areas. Ukrainian forces reportedly downed at least two near Odesa and another three near Mykolaiv.
7. Russian VKS aircraft sorties continue to be at a low with ongoing reports of some resupply and maintenance issues. Russian strategic bombers have not reportedly been active in the region now for more than a week.
8. Russian shelling was heavy around Kherson and northwest of Donetsk yesterday, but mostly more sporadic in the other impacted regions.
9. Russian reinforcements were reported heading towards Kherson yesterday with reports several units are trying to evacuate injured back east over the Dnieper River. There was heavy Russian helicopter activity out of Kherson yesterday.
10. Russian Naval activity above the surface in the Black Sea remains mostly unchanged.
11. Confirmation of casualties overnight from the Russian use of Surface to Air missiles adapted and launched from land onto civilian areas in Zaporizhzhia

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More from @TCG_CrisisRisks

Oct 8
Ukraine update - 1. The Ukrainian counteroffensives continue to progress in the southeast and south of the country. Activity is dynamic and requires caution with reporting, due to numerous sensitive operations underway and significant risks.
2. Russian forces continue to reinforce some fronts and attempt to resolve what is reported as ‘enormous resupply and morale problems’. Russia’s mobilisation phase has not as yet seen significant increases to the frontlines.
3. There continues to reportedly be growing criticism amongst Russian Commanders with regards to decision making at the most senior levels and its impact on logistics, command and control in theatre.
Read 9 tweets
Oct 7
Ukraine SITREP 1. We spoke too soon - At about the time of writing yesterday’s SITREP at least two Russian Tu-22M3 Long-Range Strategic Bombers took off from Belarus and launched stand off air strikes on military installations near Shepetivka, circa 220km west of Kyiv.
2. This is the first time these have been active in the region for weeks. Russian air/missile strikes continued yesterday and overnight, but were still significantly reduced with a reliance on UAV strikes.
3. Russias increasing reliance on its Shahed-136 kamikaze drones from Iran may shift soon as there are reports almost 50% of the batch of circa 50 supplied by Iran a few weeks ago have been intercepted with Ukrainian EW or missiles.
Read 15 tweets
Oct 5
Ukraine SITREP 1. Russian air/missile strikes yesterday and overnight increased very slightly with a few more Russian aircraft also active with weather improvements in many areas.
2. Russia continues to be leading recent strikes with its Iranian kamikaze drones, targeting a military installation overnight south of Kyiv near Bila Tserkva.
3. Russian shelling intensified towards Bakhmut again as Russian forces conducted more offensives in this region, all that were repelled. North of Donetsk there were some phases of intensive shelling, and shelling exchanges around Kherson increased.
Read 13 tweets
Oct 4
Ukrainian SITREP 1. Russian VKS air sorties continue to be operating at all time lows. The few missile strikes yesterday and overnight were mostly land launched with few aircraft operating. Improved weather conditions in the next 24hrs may see an increase again.
2. We have not seen reports of the Russian strategic bombers in the region for sometime and the majority of missile strikes now are adapted land launched missiles.
3. There are reports yet another Russian Su-25 was shot down yesterday in the southeast, with Ukrainian aircraft still flying CAPs, CAS and SEAD Ops despite poor weather.
Read 13 tweets
Oct 3
Ukraine SITREP 1. Russian air activity has significantly reduced the last 24hrs, some of which could be weather related, but it has been slowly reducing the last few weeks reportedly due to supply issues.
2. Missile strikes have reduced significantly the last 24hrs. Explosions reported in Dnipro this morning, may be Russian morning strikes.
3. Russian shelling remains much more sporadic in most areas, but with some ongoing heavy exchanges north of Kherson. Russian shelling increased into the Sumy region again in the last 24hrs.
Read 9 tweets
Oct 2
Ukraine SITREP 1. Russian air/missile strikes yesterday and overnight remained subdued with the use of Iranian kamikaze drones increasing. There are reports the Ukrainian Airforce intercepted at least four of these late yesterday and overnight.
2. Most Russian air/missile and drone strikes continue to be in the south and southeast. Zaporizhzhia and Ukrainian military defences surrounding the city were targeted heavily overnight as the Ukrainian counteroffensive east of here makes some significant progress.
3. Due to OPSEC we shall refrain from more details.
Read 10 tweets

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