Thread by @tdpauw

Predictably agile @kjscotland #lascot

But what is predictable?

behaving in a way that is expected

will I get what I expect?

Measuring business impact @kjscotland #lascot

- responsiveness
- sustainability
- value
- predictability
- productivity
- quality

Say/Do measures

Velocity predictably

this is not a measure of predictability, it says something about how reliable a team is in planning

@kjscotland #lascot

Some teams are highly predictable because I know they will always plan more than what they can do 😂
@kjscotland #lascot

Say/Do measures

SAFe Program Predictability

how safe are we? 🤷

Say/Do metrics @kjscotland #lascot

basically you are just producing numbers to make your point

Probabilistic vs Deterministic @kjscotland #lascot

Narrowing the gap @kjscotland #lascot

Hypothesis 1: cycle time inequality @kjscotland #lascot

Hypothesis 2: cycle time coefficient of variation @kjscotland #lascot

What we actually are trying to do is reducing cycle time, especially long cycle time @kjscotland #lascot

What are our leading indicators?

lag measures vs lead measures

becoming predictable is a lag measure @kjscotland #lascot

Cycle time shows you something takes a long time when it already took a long time @kjscotland #lascot

Aging WIP @kjscotland #lascot

Average WIP age @kjscotland #lascot

But what is it that creates WIP?

Blockers!! @kjscotland #lascot

example: there is a lot of work blocked for an average of 30 days

Looking at blockers is a way to get to predictability => less variability in our cycle time @kjscotland #lascot

Hypothesis:

having data about blockers will

-> less aged WIP
-> fewer long lead time work items
-> system more consistent
-> make it’s predictability more useful

@kjscotland #lascot