Thread by @wartranslated

🧵 An update from the Ukrainian military expert Oleg Zhdanov for 7th October 2022.

wartranslated.com/update-from-uk…

Kyiv time 17:00

Sadly, today we have both good and bad news. Strikes at Ukrainian cities have increased, including those by Shahed-136 kamikaze drones.

This could be linked to putin’s birthday, though no one knows his real age. One version suggests it’s 70, another that it is 72.

The enemy continues attempts to occupy the Donetsk Oblast, and interfere with Ukrainian defensive measures in certain areas.

The Russians are carrying out shelling along the whole frontline and all operational directions, conducting air recon, and cynically striking civilian infrastructure, in addition to assault operations in certain areas.

In Luhansk direction, the Russians are attempting to create defences to prevent Ukrainians from liberating their land. Ukrainians have now crossed practically the whole border of Luhansk Oblast to deoccupy it.

🔥 Strikes against Ukraine

The threat of missile strikes remains on the whole territory of Ukraine, in the past day the enemy carried out 8 missile strikes, 15 air strikes, and over 70 MLRS strikes. Three X-22 rockets were taken down by air defence. Over 25 settlements in Ukraine suffered from shelling.

There is early information that around 100 kamikaze drones have now been used out of 300 provided to Russia. These are present along the whole frontline, including Crimea.

🔥 Belarus direction

There is information that around 20 Iranian drones arrived in the area of Belarus to Zyabrovka airfield, potentially for attacks against northern cities of Ukraine.

🔥 Seversk direction

Sumy Oblast was shelled, but Chernihiv was secure in the past day.

The work to organise the strong defence in the area is underway to prevent similar events of 24 February, in case Russia decides to attack again.

🔥 Donetsk direction

Heavy fights and shelling. 25 settlements suffered from Russian shelling.

Ukrainian forces are defending from attacks by Russian invaders. Fighting here are mostly Russian mercenaries, including criminals.

It is confirmed that reinforcements of 500 mobilised convicts arrived to this direction, which is around 1 battalion.

The commanders of this unit are former police force employees. The Russian command issued an order to confiscate mobile phones from all arriving fighters. The risk of convicts escaping is high.

In Kherson, it is confirmed that 13 convicts escaped to Crimea with guns and vehicles, requiring a response including confiscating mobile phones.

🔥 Zaporizhzhia direction

It is the least intensive at the moment, mainly artillery exchanges.

🔥 Ukrainian strikes against invaders

Ukrainian air defence is very active, taking down 20 UAVs in the past day, including 15 Shahed’s but also Orlan-10’s and one Mohajer-6. Mohajer is not a kamikaze, it can stay up to 12 hours in the air, with an operational height of 1km.

It can strike targets at distances of up to 1000km. However, Iran once again claimed they do not supply Russia with UAVs, which is false.

🔥 Military and political update:
▪️ In Kaluzhskaya Oblast of Russia where Tu-22 M3 bombarders are located that strike targets in Ukraine using X-22 rockets with distance up to 600km, at an airfield an unknown UAV exploded over the landing strip.

It is unknown whose drone that was, and the damage assessment was not yet made public.
▪️ Russian mobilised soldiers are having major issues with supplies. Ukrainian intelligence reports only 92k have been mobilised successfully, according to Russian intercepted cipher.

There could be more people, but they are not properly registered, they sit and wait in the fields.
▪️ Instead of medkits which must include anesthetics, Russian mobilised are given car medkits with chocolates and women’s pads.

This is confirmed not only through video, but also through documents.
▪️ Joe Biden said that for the first time since the Cuban Crisis, the threat of the use of nuclear weapons is high if the situation continues developing the same way.

Zhdanov believes that Pentagon and State Department do not actually share the same level of confidence in a looming nuclear conflict.

▪️ This a reminder to Russians that Ukraine is ready to pay for the following surrendered vehicles: $50k for a tank; $25k for BMP/BMD and similar; $15k for an MLRS; $10k for an SPG; $5k for an armoured vehicle such as Tigr.

▪️ Putin is preparing himself a gift for his birthday by removing Shoygu from his position of Defence Minister. He’s his best friend, they often went fishing together, visited shamans, and so on, but that didn’t help.

Putin is looking for support among the military in light of the partial mobilisation and failing situation at the frontlines. After the Kharkiv defeat, Putin has no choice, he has to find someone guilty that isn’t him.

▪️ During the retreats, Russian forces abandoned more weapons than all the support provided by the Western countries.

This includes the following functional vehicles currently being used: 421 tanks (West provided 320); 445 infantry vehicles (West provided 210); 190 armoured vehicles (West provided 40); 44 MLRS (West provided 70); a large number of soviet shells for artillery.

This number is approximate, the total number might be higher.
▪️ Several Russian commanders have been discharged due to failures at the frontlines:
▪️▪️ the commander of the 1st Guards Tank Army, Lt. General Kysel was removed from the position for the failure to capture Kharkiv;

▪️▪️ the commander of the Black Sea Fleet, Igor Osipov, was removed due to Moskva cruiser sinking;

▪️▪️ the Russian General Staff commander Valery Gerasimov, likely still in his position but unclear if allowed to manage forces, intellgence says no, this is due to unprecedented losses in personnel and vehicles;

▪️▪️ the commander of the 6th Combined Arms Army of the Western Military District, Lt. General Vladislav Ershov, for the same reasons - losses, and failure to capture Kharkiv;
▪️▪️ the commander of the 22nd Army Corps of the Fleet located in Crimea, Arkadiy Marzoyev, was removed.

This is the corps formed after 2015, currently fighting in Kherson;
▪️▪️ removed is the commander of the 103rd Separate Brigade Colonel Ponomaryov;
General Ershov was not only discharged but ordered to house arrest due to huge losses of personnel.

The total losses of the 6th Combined Arms Army are over 2,000 people, 180 of them were conscripts.
▪️▪️ Also removed from the position is the commander of the 58th Combined Arms Army, Lt. General Zus’ko, the same army that was taking Tskhinval in 2008.

Over 150 other officers were arrested or discharged.
▪️▪️ Put under house arrest is the head of the 5th service, Col. General Sergey Beseda, from FSB. Beseda was moved to prison.

This is related to the large-scale theft of funds dedicated to secret services in Ukraine and improper reports of the political situation in Ukraine.

🧵 End of thread. Arestovych live stream overview to follow shortly.

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