Kamil Galeev Profile picture
Oct 9, 2022 28 tweets 8 min read Read on X
@elonmusk style may look tricksterish. That's understandable. He is an innovator, ergo disruptor and disruption may be sometimes undistinguishable from tricksterism. Content-wise though the problem with Musk is that he's creating new stuff. That he is a non-violent entrepreneur🧵
@elonmusk Don't get me wrong. I think that innovators do not get nearly enough credit for what they doing. I even noticed a weird pattern: people tend to shittalk the most about that specific industry their city/state is especially dependent upon. Still, non-violent business has a problem
And the problem with the non-violent business is that it is non-violent. Which means it is *outsourcing* violence and thus security. Indeed, all of Elon Musk's proposals suddenly make sense if you assume they are written by a businessman who is outsourcing security of his empire
There is violence going on? Bad, very bad. Violence is a liability. Let's just stop it. How? By signing a "deal". With whom though? With a *violent* businessman who's doing this violence. Sounds incredible but this is exactly how a non-violent businessman's brains are working
And that is why the non-violent businessmen have been crawling on their knees before the violent ones for the 99% of recorded human history

NB: This is assuming that the violent businessmen would even allow the non-violent ones to exist (which is far from granted)
Still, if @elonmusk exists, that means he has not been selected out. Ergo, his strategy worked out. Why? Because he lived in an artificial, abnormal environment which selected out the *violent* entrepreneurs, allowing the non-violent ones to flourish

A beautiful anomaly Image
How is the US environment abnormal? That's easy to explain. What shocked me in the US is that so many (real) crypto investors etc are very outspoken about their business activities in social media. They literally write about being crypto holders in Twitter bio. Unbelievable! Image
Let me get this straight. If you are a crypto guy, then:

1. You prolly hold lots of cash in your wallet
2. Which I could immediately transfer to mine
3. All I need is to force you to disclose your PIN (or whatever) to access your wallet

I mean, that's quite obvious, isn't it? Image
This thought is not that original. Plenty of people should have come up with this idea. Still, American cryptobros are writing about being cryptobros in social media, posting photos of where they live, etc. And they are still alive. So they are not being selected out. How come? Image
Hunting for cryptobros sounds like a great hustle for a violent entrepreneur. Still, we don't see it happening: outspoken cryptobros are alive (=not selected out). Ergo, the high end violent entrepreneurs who would select them out are being selected out. Under-appreciated fact
(Off-topic: people r complaining about how dangerous US cities are. Well, that's partially because you guys do not allow proper mafia to emerge. In much of the outer world authorities delegate controlling the street crime to mafia bosses. But you need centralised mafia for that)
In contrast, Russian cryptobros that I know tend to act very, very lowkey. The fewer people know about your activities, the better. Posting about dealing with crypto in social media is absolutely unthinkable. Why? Because that makes you too easy and lucrative prey
Consider this news which made the headlines in 2021. There is an abandoned suburban settlement near St Petersburg. This house is especially remarkable because it stands over a bunker with an underground prison Image
This underground prison is well-equipped. The entrance is covered by a concrete block which is moved up & down by a hydraulic press located outside. So there is a zero chance you will be able to get out of the prison by yourself Image
What is interesting about this prison is that it looks like an *exact* copy of a real Russian prison for investigated (СИЗО). Cells, beds, doors everything is super authentic. Even the locks on the cell doors are 100% copys of real locks from the St Petersburg "Кресты" prison Image
Why would you need everything from the locks to the beds in this underground prison to look 100% like in a real prison? Well, most probably to make the prisoners to *believe* they are in a real prison Image
Most likely:

1) you think you are in real prison
2) officers demand you to do something
3) you assume if you do it, they'll let you go. That's why you need (1)

It is likely this is prison for cryptobros. Just say your PIN and we'll let you go Image
Surprise: the underground prison is also equipped with a crematorium. This furnace is just big enough to fit a human body

That's why a prisoner needs to *believe* they are in real prison. You think you give them what they want -> they let you go. Sounds good, doesn't work Image
The house was probably built around 2010 but never registered. So on paper it never existed. Whom did the land beneath it belong to then? Well, to Renat Alimzanov, a captain of Russian FSIN - Federal Penitentiary Service which manages the *actual* Russian prison. He died in 2018 Image
Most likely explanation:

Russian federal prison officer built an underground prison as an exact copy of a real prison. There he persuaded kidnapped ppl they are in a real prison. They'd give him wants he wanted, then he'd kill & burn them. In 2018 he died, prison was abandoned
I could keep on, but honestly I need to go. So I'll finish this with a brief summary:

1. Non-violent entrepreneurs that are actually creating stuff do not get enough credit for what they are doing. They play huge role in wealth-creation
2. Still, they're an abnormality. They create prosperity, yes, but they may flourish only in the artificial environment where the high-end violent entrepreneurs are being (constantly!) wiped out. They're the hothouse flowers, to put it simply
3. Much of the outer world is destitute because of violent entrepreneurs. Violent entrepreneurs are not wiped out -> they wipe out the non-violent ones -> the country cannot create stuff -> It is destitute
4. Those who advocate for "tougher law enforcement" are clueless. In much of this world, the law enforcement is just another, superior form of violent entrepreneurship. Under normal circumstances, that's an upgrade of mafia, not a solution for the problem Image
5. That may explain why Russian army and the military equipment are so archaic btw. In order to create something new, e.g. drones you normally need non-violent entrepreneurs who would actually create stuff. In Russia they're being wiped out by the violent ones. Hence, no drones
6. The non-violent entrepreneurs create wealth. But they can flourish only under abnormal circumstances with the violent ones wiped out. Then they tend to perceive their abnormal circumstances as normal and their artificial security as given
6. The non-violent entrepreneurs create wealth (and stuff in general). But they can flourish only under abnormal circumstances with the violent ones wiped out. Then they tend to perceive their abnormal circumstances as normal and their artificial security as given
7. Non-violent entrepreneurs have prospered under artificially secure conditions and having (unknowingly) outsourced their security. If they don't understand it, you'd be much better off ignoring their advice when it comes to security and foreign policy. End of 🧵 Image

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More from @kamilkazani

Jul 1
The primary weakness of this argument is that being true, historically speaking, it is just false in the context of American politics where the “communism” label has been so over-used (and misapplied) that it lost all of its former power:

“We want X”
“No, that is communism”
“We want communism”
Basically, when you use a label like “communism” as a deus ex machina winning you every argument, you simultaneously re-define its meaning. And when you use it to beat off every popular socio economic demand (e.g. universal healthcare), you re-define communism as a synthesis of all the popular socio economic demands
Historical communism = forced industrial development in a poor, predominantly agrarian country, funded through expropriation of the peasantry

(With the most disastrous economic and humanitarian consequences)

So, yes, living under the actual communism sucks
Read 5 tweets
Jun 28
Some thoughts on Zohran Mamdani’s victory

Many are trying to explain his success with some accidental factors such as his “personal charisma”, Cuomo's weakness etc

Still, I think there may be some fundamental factors here. A longue durée shift, and a very profound one Image
1. Public outrage does not work anymore

If you look at Zohran, he is calm, constructive, and rarely raises his voice. I think one thing that Mamdani - but almost no one else in the American political space is getting - is that the public is getting tired of the outrage
Outrage, anger, righteous indignation have all been the primary drivers of American politics for quite a while

For a while, this tactics worked

Indeed, when everyone around is polite, and soft (and insincere), freaking out was a smart thing to do. It could help you get noticed
Read 8 tweets
Jun 28
People don’t really understand causal links. We pretend we do (“X results in Y”). But we actually don’t. Most explanations (= descriptions of causal structures) are fake.
Theory: X -> Y

Reality:

There may be no connection between X and Y at all. The cause is just misattributed.

Or, perhaps, X does indeed result in Y. but only under a certain (and unknown!) set of conditions that remains totally and utterly opaque to us. So, X->Y is only a part of the equation

And so on
I like to think of a hypothetical Stone Age farmer who started farming, and it worked amazingly, and his entire community adopted his lifestyle, and many generations followed it and prospered and multiplied, until all suddenly wiped out in a new ice age
Read 6 tweets
Jun 26
Some thoughts on Zohran Mamdani's victory:

1. Normative Islamophobia that used to define the public discourse being the most acceptable form of racial & ethnic bigotry in the West, is receding. It is not so much dying as rather - failing to replicate. It is not that the old people change their views as that the young do not absorb their prejudice any longer.

In fact, I incline to think it has been failing to replicate for a while, it is just that we have not been paying attention
Again, the change of vibe does not happen at once. The Muslim scare may still find (some) audience among the more rigid elderly, who are not going to change their views. But for the youth, it is starting to sound as archaic as the Catholic scare of know nothings

Out of date
2. What is particularly interesting regarding Mamdani's victory, is his support base. It would not be much of an exaggeration to say that its core is comprised of the young (and predominantly white) middle classes, with a nearly equal representation of men and women
Read 12 tweets
Jun 21
What does Musk vs Trump affair teach us about the general patterns of human history? Well, first of all it shows that the ancient historians were right. They grasped something about nature of politics that our contemporaries simply can’t.Image
Let me give you an example. The Arab conquest of Spain

According to a popular medieval/early modern interpretation, its primary cause was the lust of Visigoth king Roderic. Aroused by the beautiful daughter of his vassal and ally, count Julian, he took advantage of her Image
Disgruntled, humiliated Julian allied himself with the Arabs and opens them the gates of Spain.

Entire kingdom lost, all because the head of state caused a personal injury to someone important. Image
Read 4 tweets
Jun 19
On the impending war with Iran

One thing you need to understand about wars is that very few engage into the long, protracted warfare on purpose. Almost every war of attrition was planned and designed as a short victorious blitzkrieg

And then everything went wrong
Consider the Russian war in Ukraine. It was not planned as a war. It was not thought of as a war. It was planned as a (swift!) regime change allowing to score a few points in the Russian domestic politics. And then everything went wrong
It would not be an exaggeration to say that planning a short victorious war optimised for the purposes of domestic politics is how you *usually* end up in a deadlock. That is the most common scenario of how it happens, practically speaking
Read 12 tweets

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