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Christo Grozev Profile picture
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Oct 9 • 3 tweets • 1 min read
53% of Russians still thought the war is proceeding successfully when polled by Levada in September, down from 73% in May. Most frequent reasons for disappointment:
- No end in sight: 27%
- Mobilization: 23%
- We retreat: 22%
The reasons in more detail:
Despite Russian pollsters' claims to the contrary (including the opinion of the management of independent Levada), I don't believe you can do telephone polling in a draconian, repressed country. Thus questions like "do you support the war" are meaningless. But still:

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More from @christogrozev

Christo Grozev Profile picture
Oct 1
In a long rant clearly not written by the semi-literate (in Russian, not sure in Chechen) Kadyrov, he accuses Chief of Staff Gerassimov of ignoring his warnings that the commanding officer of Lyman=useless, and calls for use of "low-power nuclear weapons". Wonder who wrote this. ImageImage
(also, love the epitaph: "The whole situation would be great if it weren't so terrible")
And Prigozhin sides with Kadyrov, both clearly speaking on behalf of the ultra-hawks, and calling for blood-letting at the top of MoD. ImageImage
Read 4 tweets
Christo Grozev Profile picture
Oct 1
And this is already confirmed also by Russian militant channels ("Whatever promises there were to send us reinforcements never materialized". So Lyman is in Ukrainian hands.
Center of town in Ukrainian hands, multiple Russian reports.
Not sure what happened to all 4k ++ Russian forces surrounded in Lyman, but this video from one of the entry roads from this morning suggests many of them were destroyed by artillery while trying to leave the town:
Read 7 tweets
Christo Grozev Profile picture
Sep 30
In one of the craziest batshit speeches Putin has ever made, he now claims the "collective west is afraid of our philosophy and that's why they try to assassinate our philosophers".
In other bat-shit gems:
* The rule-based order the West wants to impose is nonsense
* Russophobia is in fact racism
* The West wants our resources so they want us to be a colony
"The West made whole nations dependent on narcotics and organized hunts of people as if they're animals"
Read 11 tweets
Christo Grozev Profile picture
Sep 16
And an explosion reported inside the building of the "LNR"'s prosecution headquarters in Luhansk. Someone's on a roll today.
TASS reports the explosion was inside the office of the "General Prosecutor of LNR", presumably Sergey Gorenko.
Russian militant channels report now he was wounded in the explosion.
Read 4 tweets
Christo Grozev Profile picture
Sep 16
Russia says at least 5 HIMARS rockets hit Kherson's administrative building cluster, with video showing serious damage to the district court building.
Russian state media must make difficult decisions on whether to admit/report on the surge of Ukraine strikes at targets in occupied territories. So far they opt to publicize (hard to hide anyway) but represent the strikes as if targeting civilian infrastructure.
Russian media report the target was (among others) Kirill Stremnousov, deputy head of the the Kremlin-imposed occupation authority. Not surprisingly, he was also an anti-vaccination and anti-mask activist, and had been variously an extreme-right and extreme left figure.
Read 4 tweets
Christo Grozev Profile picture
Sep 14
Ex-convict and human turd-beetle Prigozhin, who sued @bellingcat in normal court (and lost) and in kangaroo Russian court (and won) over us reporting he runs and funds the Wagner PMC, here on video recruiting Russian convicts for his "own private PMC" Wagner.
22 yrs of negative selection invariably led to a country where the more brazenly you lie, the more shamelessly you steal, and the more cruelly you kill, the higher you climb on the social ladder. Nothing exemplifies this better than billionaire Prigozhin & his trillionnaire boss.
(apologies owes to 🦘's and dung-beetles.)
Read 4 tweets

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