Thread by @rybar_en

🇷🇺🇺🇦💡 Russian Armed Forces strikes on Ukraine's energy system - Rybar's analysis

On the morning of October 10, Russian Armed Forces began massive missile strikes throughout Ukraine. In addition to the headquarters and control points of the AFU, SBU and National Guard being hit, Ukrainian energy infrastructure facilities were subjected to systemic strikes.

Neither nuclear power plants nor hydroelectric power plants were struck - and there is no need for that in the current case. Our map shows all significant substations and TPPs with thermal power plants, as well as 330kV high-voltage lines on the territory of Ukraine.

Some of the objects (as well as lines with 750kV substations) were intentionally omitted - otherwise the map would be extremely overcrowded. We focused on the 330kV lines - they were the first to be hit during the strikes.

🔻 The Rybar team has now been able to confirm the following strikes:

▪️ Kyiv: Massive hits on TPP-3, TPP-5, substation 110 Vokzalna, Darnytska TPP.

But no strikes confirmed on the Brovary and Sivirna substations, or Kyiv TPP-6. Either they were not included in the list of objects to be hit, or the Ukrainian air defense systems partially worked.

▪️ Rivne: Rivne 330 kV substation - hitting the facility caused overloading of 110 kV substations and loss of electricity in the city.

▪️ Khmelnytsky: Khmelnytsky 330/110 kV substation - since there is no power in the whole city, only the 330 kV substation could have been hit, which provoked disconnection of the Rakove, Stara, Termoplast, Ozirna, Dubove substations and the Grechany traction substation.

▪️ Ternopil: Ternopil 330/110/35 kV substation - no power in the whole city. It feeds: 110 kV Zahreblya, Ternopil support station, Halytsʹka, Promyslova, Plotycha, ZBV.

▪️ Sumy: 330kV Konotop substation - the hit caused power outages in the entire region.

▪️ Kharkiv: in the entire city there is no light, water, communications, and the subway stopped.

This could mean a simultaneous shutdown of substations Zalyutino, Kharkiv, Loseve, as well as Kharkiv TPP-5, Zmiiv TPP, Chuhuiv TPP-2. But due to the lack of communication in the region, it is not yet possible to confirm that all facilities were disabled.

▪️ Kryvyi Rih: Kryvyi Rih TPP, one of the largest in Ukraine.

▪️ Zhytomyr: Zhytomyr 330/110 kV substation

▪️ Lviv: Lviv TPP-1

▪️ Ivano-Frankivsk: Burshtyn TPP

▪️ Vinnytsia: delayed trains reported, which may be an indication of the failure of individual traction substations. But there is no data about this in open sources.

🔻 The strikes caused shock among the Ukrainian population. The outage of certain key structures of the Ukrainian power grid caused an overload of the entire power system: the nuclear power plants could not cope with the load.

Those who gave the order for a massive fire attack should consider that all of this damage can still be repaired. If the purpose of the strike was to cause a short-term shock - well, it worked.

But if the goal is to overload the power system of Ukraine for a prolonged panic among the population, to lower the AFU's morale and psychological state and win on the battlefield, then such actions would need to be repeated.

❗️ It is necessary to break the 750kV switchgear at nuclear power plants, responding with symmetrically to what was done against Zaporizhia NPP. Particular attention should be paid to Khmelnytsky NPP - it has a direct power line to Poland.