Thread by @PeterDaszak

Report of the Independent Task Force on COVID-19 and other Pandemic Origins, Prevention and Response published today in @PNASNews. @EckerleIsabella @HumeField @MarionKoopmans @calhi415 @suuyadana @neidl @BUCEID @hkumed @OhioState @unimalaya @KNUSTGH
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pnas.org/doi/full/10.10…

Authors include all original members of Taskforce under @TheLancet COVID-19 commission w/ the addition of two new members @MarionKoopmans & @suuyadana. Experts representing disciplinary, geographical diversity. 2/
independentcovidtaskforce.org/about-members

Our taskforce interviewed experts on emerging disease surveillance & control & One Health. We spoke with scientists from WIV & proponents of so-called ‘natural’ & ‘lab leak’ origin theories of COVID-19, details below 3/

We reviewed what’s known about emergence of series of RNA viral & other epidemics/pandemics. We analyzed data on origins & causes of each CoV known to infect people and livestock. 4/

There are striking similarities among all prior pandemics, most EIDs & COVID-19. Zoonotic origin, emergence driven by human activity – wildlife trade, land use change, demographic shifts, globalized trade 5/
thelancet.com/journals/lance…

The lack of ‘dispositive’ info so far on COVID-19 emergence is not unusual – it normally takes many years to identify the wildlife reservoir or amplifier host of a novel pathogen. Some are still unknown decades later. 6/

Almost all important CoVs have wildlife origins, many from bats, including common cold CoVs that first spilled over to people centuries ago. Scale, frequency of wildlife CoV emergence in people/livestock is key indicator of future risk. Fig. c/o @hongying_li @EcoHealthNYC. 7/

We took a deep dive into livestock CoVs. Recombination of viruses from widely diff. hosts, repeated emergence, global spread of novel viruses leading to global economic impacts. A mirror of SARSr-CoVs & clear message that more will emerge if business continues as usual. 8/

We reviewed theories on origin of COVID-19, laying out all available scientific (reproducible, validatable, testable) evidence & assessing rigor of the science behind them. Full details in Supporting Info (Table S.6.) 9/
pnas.org/doi/full/10.10…

Majority of publications w/ evidence on so-called ‘natural’ origins have primary data/analysis, are in peer reviewed journals. 'Lab leak' papers are almost all Op Eds, Commentaries, preprints or web articles. This is part of normal measure of rigor for a scientific hypothesis 10/

Our review concluded that quality of evidence for so-called ‘natural origins’ hypothesis substantially outweighs that for ‘lab leak’. In fact we found no reproducible, testable, scientific evidence for the latter. 11/

We conclude that, like SARS-CoV and all pandemics of last 100+ yrs, COVID-19 likely originated as zoonotic spillover from wildlife. In this case bats to farmed/traded intermediate hosts or directly to people, & then spread via trade routes to the Huanan Seafood Market, Wuhan 12/

Our conclusion that COVID-19 likely originated as zoonotic spillover in wildlife trade & that lab leak theory lacks evidence “presents no conflict” w/ efforts to improve lab & field biosafety/biosecurity. But let’s not disingenuously conflate issues of origin, labs, fieldwork 13/

We report that COVID’s spread & impact was enhanced by lack of will to take necessary steps for PPE, testing & control capacity, and further heightened by willful misinformation/disinformation 14/

Emerging disease events underlying pandemics are increasing in a nonlinear fashion, driven by rapidly increasing human footprint on our planet. Future EIDs will emerge more frequently, spread more rapidly, & have potential for higher impacts than even COVID-19 15/

Dealing w/ the rising threat of pandemics will require doubling down on current efforts as outbreak investigation & control, but also radical new thinking on how to prevent pandemics. We offer 5 key recommendations that could help bring on the end of the pandemic era 16/

1) “Smart Surveillance” of people, livestock, wildlife in EID hotspots & high-risk interfaces. ID'ing evidence of spillover, novel wildlife viruses, conducting risk assessments. Benefits of early warning, vaccine/therapeutic reagents, outweigh risks. Example EHA's EID-SEARCH 17/

2) Preparedness and translational research. R&D for broad spectrum diagnostics, ‘Prototype Pathogen’ vaccines, novel therapeutics based on data from ‘Smart Surveillance’. Researching pathogenesis of potential high-threat pathogens to guide new therapeutic strategies. 18/

3) Reducing drivers of Spillover. Working w/ communities to understand epidemiological, value chain & behavioral drivers & implement risk reduction programs. Incorporating economic costs of EIDs to provide incentives for sustainable development. 19/
ipbes.net/pandemics

4) Counter mis/disinformation. Research how it spreads & is accepted. Organizations to support scientists under threat. Show social media users how they’re being manipulated! h/t @NovelSci @PhilippMarkolin 20/
protagonistfuture.substack.com/a-tale-of-two-…

5) Strengthen One Health governance at local, regional, national/international scales. Funded programs that use One Health for pandemic preparedness. 21/
worldbank.org/en/topic/agric…

This report is culmination of >2 yrs work (June 2020 – present). During this time scientific data on COVID-19’s origins, impact & control has risen exponentially. Although there is still much to be discovered, the lessons from COVID-19 are already deep & significant… 22/

Acting on key lessons from COVID-19 will require investments in smart surveillance & pandemic prevention on top of current strategy of control after a pandemic emergence (vaccines, diagnostics, therapeutics, PPE). We need to do BOTH! 23/
thelancet.com/journals/lance…

As you will read, our taskforce has been through the mill during the last 2 yrs, continuing to meet after leaving @TheLancet. As Jerry Keusch of @BU_Tweets said “We thought we had something to offer whether or not we were part of the commission,” 24/ science.org/content/articl…

Our taskforce’s work will continue, via this report, & through the many projects each of us lead to bring our recommendations into reality, & usher in the ‘post-pandemic’ era. 25/
independentcovidtaskforce.org