🚨 | Random fact-check company @LogicallyIN has done a fact-check on a recent statement 'August 2022 saw the highest mortality rate in England in 15 years'
Their fact-check is FALSE ❌
See thread
1/
logically.ai/factchecks/lib…
Their fact-check is FALSE ❌
See thread
1/
logically.ai/factchecks/lib…
The graphic in question which they are fact checking shows death rates in England for all persons in August of each year.
In August 2022 the age-standardised death rate was 915.7, the highest since August since 2007 when it was 986.
2/
In August 2022 the age-standardised death rate was 915.7, the highest since August since 2007 when it was 986.
2/
To get to these numbers you download one of the ONS spreadsheets (link here) -> ons.gov.uk/file?uri=/peop…
Table 1 shows the death rates for every month in England for all people from Jan 2001 onwards.
Taking the August numbers you get this data... shown in the image.
3/
Table 1 shows the death rates for every month in England for all people from Jan 2001 onwards.
Taking the August numbers you get this data... shown in the image.
3/
This is the first stage of a fact check - you check to see if the graphic and official data published are the same.
The company has missed this stage, but you will see August 22 is the highest death rate since 2007.
4/
The company has missed this stage, but you will see August 22 is the highest death rate since 2007.
4/
The statement made by the presenter says August 22 saw the highest mortality rate in 15 years. If you want to be pedantic, it could have been a little clearer, saying it was for August months only - but that was on the screen on the chart while talking about it.
5/
5/
Now the fact-check article does not actually check the data for August - which is what is shown in the graphic.
The fact check relates to deaths for 2022 as a whole - which the broadcast piece was not commenting on.
The second stage - check the correct 'facts'
6/
The fact check relates to deaths for 2022 as a whole - which the broadcast piece was not commenting on.
The second stage - check the correct 'facts'
6/
The fact check also has a verdict that - 'no indication of a concerning trend of excess deaths'. This is in stark contrast to what the data is showing.
If seeing higher-than-expected deaths all summer is not a concern to these fact-checkers that in itself is worrying.
7/
If seeing higher-than-expected deaths all summer is not a concern to these fact-checkers that in itself is worrying.
7/
My recent blog talks of the numbers of higher-than-expected deaths - data a few weeks old but you get the picture from it.
8/
statsjamie.co.uk/more-deaths-th…
8/
statsjamie.co.uk/more-deaths-th…
The Financial Times journalist John Burn Murdoch has been highlighting excess deaths over the summer months.
9/
9/
https://twitter.com/jburnmurdoch/status/1562004612172873728?s=20&t=qD562MlOwTnJfr5zlw6KhQ
Nick Triggle at the BBC wrote this piece on the subject.
If there are no excess deaths - then they best start writing to all these journalists looking at the same data.
10/
bbc.co.uk/news/health-62…
If there are no excess deaths - then they best start writing to all these journalists looking at the same data.
10/
bbc.co.uk/news/health-62…
The fact check also claims to be checking the claim greater percentage of excess deaths in younger adults.
This is made by looking at expected deaths over the summer vs those that actually occurred when removing Covid deaths.
They have made no attempt to look at that data
11/
This is made by looking at expected deaths over the summer vs those that actually occurred when removing Covid deaths.
They have made no attempt to look at that data
11/
The fact check also talks of excess deaths and vaccinations. I made no mention of deaths and vaccinations in the broadcast - my recent blog on the matter says it is difficult to conclude causation without data.
They do correctly say I was commenting on the NHS performance.
12/
They do correctly say I was commenting on the NHS performance.
12/
Some say higher-than-expected deaths are due to vaccinations. The presenter finished by making this comment.
This is my recent conclusion - there are many factors, which warrant further investigation, which the Department for Health has called for.
13/
This is my recent conclusion - there are many factors, which warrant further investigation, which the Department for Health has called for.
13/
In summary, a poor fact-check, riddled with mistakes. The highest mortality rate in 15 years in August 2022 is as published by the ONS. Comparing this to something else without looking at the chart discussed shoddy work.
There is an excess deaths issue in 2022 as well.
14/
There is an excess deaths issue in 2022 as well.
14/
If you want to get more technical and factor in statistical confidence intervals, then the death rate in August 2022 is similar to 2012. But most people do not understand this concept and people look at the central estimate.
15/
15/
Now, @LogicallyIN can update their check with my response in this thread.
Making claims the graphic related to August death rates is false when sources are shown above showing this, then publishing their claim on the internet is reputationally damaging.
16/
Making claims the graphic related to August death rates is false when sources are shown above showing this, then publishing their claim on the internet is reputationally damaging.
16/
Who checks the fact checkers when they are free to make claims without even checking the source data correctly.
17/ends
17/ends
I should have added I was alerted to this fact check through Facebook as a video of me talking about the data, as explained in the thread above has been marked as false by Facebook through said company.
@threadreaderapp unroll
• • •
Missing some Tweet in this thread? You can try to
force a refresh
