Bob Elliott Profile picture
Oct 11 5 tweets 2 min read
Great coverage of $HFND from @pensionsnews @KathieOD_PI. A thread of some highlights:

$HFND "seeks to create a portfolio that has return characteristics similar to the hedge fund industry's returns before fees"

pionline.com/exchange-trade…
"We believe that this ETF, which replicates the returns of the hedge fund industry, provides a low-cost alternative for any investor who is putting money in hedge fund-type products,"
"The new ETF uses a propriety machine learning algorithm to create a portfolio that best matches the most recent month's returns of each major hedge fund style"
"Investors could include both retail and institutional investors such as pension funds, 'many of whom are facing enormous fee pressure and are struggling to rationalize paying 2 and 20 to hedge fund managers'"
"The ETF wrapper is 'the best structure for the investor,' Mr. Elliott said. 'It's low-cost, it's liquid, it's transparent and it's tax efficient,' he said. 'And so that's why we chose (to develop) our products in the ETF form as opposed to other forms.' #ETF

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More from @BobEUnlimited

Oct 12
L/S Equity strategies outperform index returns, including this year. The problem is the fees. If investors could have added these returns at lower fees, their portfolios would have benefited. A thread:

L/S Equity gross returns outperform, but add in 2&20 and net returns lag: Image
Over the last couple decades, L/S Equity strategies have delivered higher returns with less volatility than index returns. The same is true if we zoom in on the last 5 year's up and down period too. Image
L/S Equity does particularly well during drawdown periods by limiting losses relative to index returns.

While the S&P was down 25% through Sep, L/S equity strategies were down only 10%. Limiting drawdowns and capturing most upside is how these strategies outperform over time. Image
Read 5 tweets
Oct 12
Today kicks off inflation data for Sept. Any way you look at it, inflation remains well above the Fed's mandate.

Data baked for Sept/Oct show stable at 6% core (shown below). Over the next 6m core CPI might ease to ~5.5%, but that's still far too high for the Fed. Thread: Image
When I pencil out average monthly inflation for the next 6m, I don't see much moderation in core CPI. A little softer over the 6m than the next 2m above, but still around 5.5% average month annualized rate. My assumptions and some more commentary below: Image
There are lots of good commentary out there on what's baked in for OER and Rents. Even though new leases are starting to decline, because of lease resets and smoothing, its going to take some time before their is a slowdown in the reported figures.

Read 12 tweets
Oct 11
Market response to the BoE furthering their steps to slow the bond market sales taken positively across markets. A quick scan.

GBP rallied on the news:
It also marked a nearby bottom in global bonds (using US here cause I can see the full overnight easily).
And a pop in stock markets as well, though more of it came when folks in the US woke up and took in the news.
Read 5 tweets
Oct 11
Stocks are down 25% on the year. But once you take into consideration the rise in discount rates and the impact of the dollar on earnings, the stock market implies higher earnings than at the start of the year.

That creates a large earnings re-rating risk to current prices:
Of course any attempt to back out the discount rate is imperfect since we don't know the precise duration and cash flows of all the companies in the economy. A point of triangulation is dividend futures for next year. Basically still at peak levels:
Also you can look at EPS estimates. They are always too high because analysts paint too rosy a picture. What you see is that the projections haven't really come down either.

Read 4 tweets
Oct 10
A pretty brutal day across bond markets today, which is flowing across other markets. Weakness was exacerbated by the Scholz comments, but was in place ahead of it.

Lets start with bunds. Big move down in prices on the story release:
That move came into a global bond market that was already soft because of the re-emerging gilt pressures. The bund selloff on top of it didn't help.
US bonds also took a hit on the news after opening soft on the day, though not as bad as the above. Ended up down on par with the bund market in price terms. Have to use $VGLT because the bond market is closed today. Move is ~+7bps in total for US vs UK +24bps and GER +14bps.
Read 9 tweets
Oct 10
The dollars continued strength is supported by two structural factors reducing the sensitivity of the US economy to an inflationary tightening cycle vs other counties:

1) energy balance
2) reduced HH rate sensitivity.

These both remain firmly in place. DXY back near highs: Image
A critical divergence is in the energy balances of major developed economies. The US balance vs eur/uk/jpn means that higher oil prices are putting much less pressure on the US relative to those other counties.
The second is the divergence in HH interest rate sensitivity. Following the GFC there was a big shift in the US to conforming long-term fixed rate mortgages. Other economies structurally have more floaters or resets.

This means the Fed has to tighten more for similar impact. Image
Read 4 tweets

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