Ukraine SITREP 1. Russian air/missile strikes were more limited late yesterday, with impacts reported in Mykolaiv overnight and Kyiv Oblast this morning. Russia continues to mostly rely on its Kamikaze UAVs and some adapted land launched S-300s.
2. Ukrainian forces intercepted further Russian UAVs and missiles overnight and this morning, as some attacks continue at the time of this report and may increase to coincide with civilians travelling to work, etc in the next few hours.
3. Power is slowly being restored to most of the major impacted regions. Air raid sirens continue in many regions and must be acted upon at all times. The risks of further air/missile strikes in most areas remains high.
4. The Ukrainian counteroffensives continue to make progress re-securing more ground and settlements. Ukrainian forces downed four helicopters in the southern counteroffensive around Kherson yesterday.
5. The Ukrainian airforce continues to conduct Search and Destroy Operations destroying further Russian Air Defence Systems, vehicles, resupply centres and other defences yesterday and overnight.
6. Russian VKS aircraft activity remains significantly reduced and active mostly in the southeast. Russia has lost a considerable number of its aircraft committed to this invasion and continues to have what’s reported as ‘maintenance resupply issues’.
7. Russian shelling intensified in a number of regions yesterday, and was intensive for long periods onto Orihiv in the Zaporizhzhia region overnight. It is reportedly more sporadic in most other impacted regions this morning.
8. The main Russian momentum remains around Bakhmut where intensive fighting continues. Russia has reinforced several of its more elite units here as has its private contractors.
9. The UN General Assembly yesterday passed a resolution condemning Russia’s illegal annexations in Ukraine with 143 countries out the 193 voting in favour.
10. NATO countries continue to increase sanctions, restrict travelling Russians and further increase weapons and training to Ukraine, including with improved Air Defence Systems.
11. Britains has now agreed to supply the Advanced Medium-Range Air-to-Air Missile (AMRAAM), and the U.S the National Advanced Surface-to-Air Missile System, (NASAMS) that along with others countries pledges will significantly improve Ukrainian air defences.
12. Russian Naval activity in the Black Sea and Sea of Azov remains mostly unchanged. Cruise missile Naval launchers remain active with missile strikes from the Sea still a high risk.

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More from @TCG_CrisisRisks

Oct 14
Ukraine SITREP 1. Russian air/missile strikes continued yesterday and overnight with Zaporizhzhia impacted hard this morning. The strikes at this stage are not as significant as earlier in the week, but the threat of increased strikes remains high.
2. Another ammunition depot exploded in the Belgorod region last night with reports of significant damage.
3. Russian shelling was intensive around Bakhmut and north of Donetsk yesterday and artillery exchanges were very heavy yesterday around Kreminna and northwest of Kherson. In most of the other impacted regions shelling was mostly more sporadic.
Read 8 tweets
Oct 12
Ukraine SITREP 1. Russian air/missile strikes yesterday were less than the previous day, but still significant with stand off strikes from Russian Tu-160 and Tu-95 strategic bombers, along with sea and land launched strikes and more UAVs.
2. Strikes mostly targeted energy infrastructure causing significant power outages in the Lviv region along with disruptions elsewhere due to impacts.
3. Ukrainian Air Defences continued to be mostly effective, with reports more than 50% of Russian missiles and or UAVs were intercepted. Ukrainian forces reportedly intercepted around 20 missiles and 13 kamikaze UAVs.
Read 17 tweets
Oct 11
Ukraine SITREP 1. As we had unfortunately anticipated, Russia launched a retaliatory set of air/missile strikes yesterday morning for the Kerch bridge attack. The attacks were widespread and included the Kyiv, Lviv areas, the south, central and some eastern regions.
2. Whilst some targets were military and energy infrastructure, many were civilian residential, shopping and education areas. Cruise missiles were launched from the air and sea and a combination of other land launched missiles were used along with UAVs.
3. At around the same time Russian Airforce, Government and Special Flight Squadron flights appeared to switch off or change their transponder modes and a number of cyberattacks were reported in Europe and later in the US.
Read 15 tweets
Oct 10
Ukraine - Reports of ADS active Kyiv and cruise missile impacts in the city. Several explosions heard.
Ukraine - Some reports of Russian strategic bomber comms activity northern Caspian Sea region. We have seen stand off cruise missile attacks on the Kyiv region before from this region. Possibly involved in strikes on Kyiv this morning, but unverified reports of UAV activity too.
Ukraine - Missile impacts reported in Dnipro city and ADS active.
Read 15 tweets
Oct 10
Ukraine SITREP 1. There are concerns that Putin has made significant commitments now to Lukashenko to leane on Belarus to join his invasion, with reports of fresh Belarus military manoeuvres near the border and possibile indications of their further involvement in all off this.
2. Russian aircraft have reportedly been returning to the Luninets Airbase this week after improvements, with much ground and building work done there in recent months. We are awaiting further satellite imagery analysis to verify any significant changes or obvious activity.
3. Meanwhile Ukrainian intelligence is reporting several Belarus military battalions have repositioned near the border including mechanised, airborne and special forces, but we have seen similar manoeuvres before, so it may just be more propoganda.
Read 15 tweets
Oct 9
Ukraine update 1. No indications as yet of any obvious Russian retaliation for the Kerch bridge attack that has caused significant disruptions to Russian resupplies into the south of Ukraine. We anticipate one is still likely.
2. A Russian missile attack on civilian residential areas in Zaporizhzhia with casualties occurred overnight. This region continues to be targeted as the Ukrainian counteroffensive east of the city makes progress.
3. Russian air/missile strikes yesterday and overnight continued to be at a reduced level with impacts in the south central and southeast regions. UAVs continue to be the main strike mechanism with Ukrainian forces intercepting at least another four in the last 24hrs.
Read 7 tweets

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