Many people dismiss propaganda and disinformation as marginal, but they are key to Russia’s war on Ukraine. Putin’s main propaganda message: if you arm Ukraine more than I wish, this could cause nuclear war. @NatVogel, @kalenskyj, @JakubJanda Thread. 1 of 8
Threatening nightmare scenarios is standard practice for RU prop/disinfo aimed at policy/opinion makers. See “Clandestine Disinformation and Agents of Influence,” at e.america.gov/t/ViewEmail/i/…. 2 of 8
Former KGB Foreign Intelligence head archivist Vasily Mitrokhin revealed this in “KGB Active Measures in Southwest Asia in 1980-82,” at digitalarchive.wilsoncenter.org/document/110013. Sov disinfo to Pakistani President Zia ul-Haq: the US is plotting to oust you. 3 of 8
Soviet disinfo to India: PAK will use leverage from aiding anti-Soviet Afghan rebels to gain US permission to build a nuclear bomb, India’s nightmare scenario. Disinfo to Iran: PAK will let US build a major military base in Baluchistan, near Iranian border. 4 of 8
Sov threat to Pakistan: we will foment rebellion in tribal areas if you continue aiding Afghan rebels, employing experts in institutes of Academy of Sciences. 5 of 8
Putin makes same type of nightmare scenario threats re: UKR. If West supplies UKR with weapons I disapprove of, this could cause the West’s nightmare scenario: nuclear war. 6 of 8
Broad goals of RU prop/disinfo are: discredit, divide, disarm, demoralize adversaries. See “Goals and Main Tactics of Russia’s Disinformation,” at e.america.gov/t/ViewEmail/i/…. 7 of 8
In late 80s, USSR went hyper-conciliatory in desperate effort to stop Reagan’s staunch policies by “eliminating enemy image.” Now, Putin is hyper-alarmist in effort to scare West and restrict arms to UKR. Goal same: disarm adversary, using whatever message works best. End
The propaganda/disinfo takes an “if … then” form: if Country A does something I don’t want them to do, then this will supposedly lead to terrible, ruinous results for them. If the threat is plausible, it can be very effective. Don’t try this at home.
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