IZ Profile picture
Oct 14, 2022 โ€ข 9 tweets โ€ข 3 min read โ€ข Read on X
1/n
It really is all one trade.
Risk markets LTM.
Liquidity and $SPX
๐Ÿ‘€
cc: @concodanomics
2/n
Liquidity and $DXY
๐Ÿ‘€
3/n
Liquidity and real rates
๐Ÿ‘€
4/n
Real rates and $DXY
๐Ÿ‘€
5/n
Real rates and $SPX
๐Ÿ‘€
6/n
Real rates and FCI
๐Ÿ‘€
7/n
FCI and $SPX
๐Ÿ‘€
8/n
$SPX and $DXY
๐Ÿ‘€
n)
Bonus: impact of SLR relief expiry on liquidity
#SLR

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More from @siddiqui71

Oct 9, 2022
1/n
Respectfully disagree with almost everything you posit in the first tweet. In a credit based economy
- at 125% debt/GDP
- tightening liquidity with >$1T withdrawn
- most aggressive/rapid hiking cycle in history
- inverted curves
- $ spiking -> global FX imbalances
2/n
-global tightening -> global economy on the brink
- equity/risk asset markets imploding
- housing tanking
- $ trillions in refinancing required at higher rates/lower appetite
- savings rate collapsed while revolving credit at new highs
- fiscal stimulus tailwind evaporated
3/n
-earnings recession on the horizon
- unemployment at 3.5% ๐Ÿ˜‚
- and the Fed committed to slaying inflation (using a backward looking CPI)
So I fail to see how โ€œcredit crunches and deflation is overโ€!
And how we could be โ€œin an era of higher rates and persistent inflationโ€?
Read 5 tweets
Jan 15, 2021
1/n
Whoa! This is a firecracker. I'll wait for PPT (@gamesblazer06) and @Stimpyz1 to argue both sides of the argument. Here's my take FWIW.
In Jan 2019 the Fed decided to implement an "ample reserve" regime. This has important ramifications for money markets. As Fed ...
2/n
... assetsโฌ†๏ธ e.g QE, composition of the Fed's liabilities also changes. As TGA balanceโฌ†๏ธ ($1.6T currently), bank reservesโฌ‡๏ธ (currently $3.2T). TGA balance is expected to โฌ‡๏ธ due to fiscal relief. RRP, a tool for MMFs to invest at a fixed rate, places a floor under ....
3/n
... O/N rates. RRP balance is currently very low.
Note that in an "ample reserves" regime (i.e. reserves balances well above what is needed for payment purposes), banks are comfortable (a) investing excess balances when return on HQLA > IOER, and (b) taking deposits ...
Read 8 tweets

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