Thread by @michaeldweiss

🧵Latest update from "Karl," the Estonian military analyst. With @holger_r:

"Main point of focus should be in Luhansk and Kherson where it is a question of 1-2 weeks when the next Russian defense lines should break. It’s only a matter of time."

"It is doubtful that the collapse would lead to Ukraine taking Kherson on the west bank of the Dnipro river but they would get to the vicinities of the city. Russia will likely make an attempt to still keep the city for a while."

"Russia has made a small advance in Bakhmut but compared to what Ukraine has been reclaiming, it is like the Vatican and Italy. It would still be a long way for Russia to advance to Kramatorsk and Slovyansk from Bakhmut."

"Considering that Russia has advanced there only 5-6 km over several months, there’s not too much concern yet. Ukraine should get their artillery reinforcement there and that will help get the initiative back."

"When Russia started the advance on Bakhmut they still controlled Izyum. That would’ve allowed to put pressure on Kramatorsk from two different directions. They don’t have such a possibility anymore."

"The main motivator for the rocket fire on Kyiv and other cities this week was Russia’s dire situation on the frontlines. The Kerch bridge came only as a secondary reason, which helped prove to the home audience that they indeed are doing something."

"The rocket attacks were uncomfortable but the effect would’ve been much larger if they’d have done it when the real heating season began. Ukraine itself assesses that Russia still has around 600 precision missile left. How reasonable is it to use 80-100 in one such attack?"

"The Kerch bridge explosion caused a lot of damage. The renovation is intended to finish only by July next year. This means that Russian logistics on the southern front will be deeply impacted for months."

"It will become evident after a few weeks when the supplies that already are in Crimea start to become depleted."

"A noteworthy detail about the bridge: you can see that some spans broke up because of poor construction, not directly because of the explosion. It indicates how much money was stolen from the construction project. (Constructed by Putin’s very close friend Rotenberg.)"

"I assess that there won’t be an attack from Belarus coming anytime soon. It’s an information operation to keep the Ukrainians on their toes and tie up some of their units. It’d be a suicide for Lukasheko."

"Ukraine itself assessed a few days ago that there were only around 1,000 Russian troops in Belarus. In fact, Russia has taken both equipment and ammunition away from Belarus to Donbas."

"A recent trend is Russians capitulating in small units. The latest news is 27 soldiers surrendering near Kreminna. This indicates they are totally without equipment and lack the support of artillery and airforce. That’s when such decisions to surrender are taken."

"The high days of Iranian drones are over. The percentage of the drones taken down is already at 80-90%. Noteworthy that during the missile attacks this week Ukrainians only managed to intercept 50%. Usually the rate is somewhere around 65-75%..."

"... When the next day the number of missile coming in was smaller, that rate was back to normal again."

"Russia itself is afraid of Ukraine advancing across the Dnipro river and starting an offensive from the left bank as well. I don't see that as likely (see above) "but it keeps the option open – Ukraine has managed to make surprise moves, as we know."

"If that were to happen, the entire southern defense would collapse. Ukraine would be in the range to hit the Kerch bridge every day as much as they please."