Thread by @polidemitolog

Belgrade is full of Russian middle class emigres (17k with a non-permanent resident status). Most of them are IT specialists and their families, but from time to time I see Russians from the social sciences (гуманитарий). I happen to hear parts of their conversations sometimes.

Yesterday, I went to a local McDonald's, in the Balkans it's a place for the middle class because it's more expensive than local fast food restaurants. There were three Russians there, one an IT guy and two typical Muscovite hipsters.

While the IT guy was telling his regular stories about algorithms and troubles with domineering girlfriends the conversation went stale. No politics, no war, some small talk about the Balkans being to hot for their northern taste, some complaints about the everyday chaos.

But the social sciences people started to share their angst about the war. They were afraid of mobilization in regards for their friends left in Russia, started to talk about what I read in the Russian liberal media - they're drafting everyone, going after people in the malls...

They were clearly troubled. Now the IT guy also remembers that he's living in a society. He sounds even more afraid than the hipsters. He starts talking about numbers of those escaping the draft, coming to the conclusion that all hell will break loose if borders get closed.

Sometimes it may seem that Russians outside of Russia act like tourists, but they're worried and scared in general. Usually they're not living care free, although they give themselves a break from time to time.

Now, the thing that bothers me is that they never think about what they can do, it's always an atmosphere of waiting for some critical moment to appear out of nowhere and Putin dissappears. It always seems that nothing is happening in Russian society until that spark appears.

Obviously, it also bothers me that I never hear anything about Ukrainians dying and feeling sorry for them, not only for their own fate, whit which I also sympathize with as a person in a similar situation with them (but a light version of the same fate).

The point is to put yourself in the shoes of others and not judge to harshly. The other point is that the Russian middle class is waiting for something to break. It's my feeling that even parts of the elite (non-security ones) are also in the process of waiting.

Of course, this typically Russian atmosphere frustrates me, but I understand that that's how Russian society works. It's boiling from the inside at the moment. The processes of war and mobilization are by themselves moving Russian society to the tipping point.

On the other hand, no one can tell when exactly will the waiting end and action begin. If the current factors remain unchanged or don't change significantly, the waiting will inevitably end. It's also possible that the Ukrainian army will outrun Russian society.

For everyone asking what about Serbian society, I actually wrote an article on this subject recently. The article is in Russian, but the main points are explained in English.

https://twitter.com/polidemitolog/status/1580248041973374976?t=2DQn9json0aicqT_eK8yMw&s=19

Addendum

There is a protest group in Belgrade called "Russians, Ukrainians, Belarusians and Serbs together against the war". They make performances and sometimes protest actions. I have not seen more than a hundred people join them, including the local Belgradians.