Thread by @SteveDeaceShow

Three weeks out, three signs the red wave will turn into a red tsunami:

1) Trump’s rural MAGA base staying with GOP without him on the ballot

2) potential for record low black turnout

3) potential for record Hispanic migration to GOP

Everything else — Biden’s anemic approval, loss of independents, economic implosion, etc. — is what built the existing and assumed red wave. Now you’re looking for outliers that elevate things next level.

1 and 3 on my list are trends Trump gets credit for originating. In Iowa, for example, we saw Trump flip over 30 rural Obama counties red. And they have stayed red, which is how we went from a Lean Red state to Solidly Red.

3 is a trend we began to see with Trump 2020, particularly with younger and non-college educated Hispanics. That trend line is only expanding in real time in 2022. And if GOP delivers (insert snicker here), has generational potential. They’re more assimilated than boomer parents.

2 is a factor Democrats get sole credit for. They have self-depressed their most loyal base, blacks, by crushing them both economically and culturally. They are not prepared to migrate to the GOP, so many just stay home in protest.

Democrats will still get around 90% of blacks, but size of the bloc will be smaller. Similar to 2016, when Hillary largely lost Wisconsin because about 20k fewer blacks voted in Milwaukee than in Obama election of 2012. Her percentage was still sky high, but the turnout shrunk.

Without a dynamic figure to motivate voters to overlook lack of results, like an Obama, Democrats have no message to sell the Obama black and brown coalition. And the economy is too sour, and their cultural message to vile to these communities, to race bait their way out.

For these reasons, barring something unforeseen, three weeks from now it will be a red tsunami. And the margins in many places will be too vast for, shall we say, “shenanigans” to make up the difference.