Ukraine SITREP 1. Sadly as we had anticipated, Russian air/missile strikes increased, were intensive and widespread yesterday across Ukraine, with a Russian heavy reliance on drones used to attack City’s including Kyiv.
https://twitter.com/TCG_CrisisRisks/status/1581530080336936960
2. The Iranian supplied Shahed-136 drones were used significantly by Russian forces with Ukrainian forces intercepting many, some with just sustained small arms fire.
3. Russian air/missile strikes are reported again this morning with power outages in some regions as a consequence of impacts. We expect airstrikes will continue to be widespread and will likely also involve more Russian strategic stand off strikes in the coming days.
4. Russian VKS manned aircraft activity continues to be low with the few sorties reported mostly in the southern occupied regions. We have continued to report Russian maintenance resupply issues with aircraft.
5. Yesterday a Russian Su-34 crashed into a residential building near the city of Yeysk in Russia's Krasnodar Krai, with early reports of an engine fire likely associated with maintenance issues.
6. Russian shelling was intensive around Bakhmut and west of Donetsk, increased north of Kherson, north of Donetsk, into the Sumy region and around Dnipro, but remained mostly more sporadic in the other impacted regions.
7. Fighting intensified around the Bakhmut front with Russian forces launching localised offensives near Nevelske, Bakhmutske, Pobyeda, Maryinka, Krasnohorivka, Spirne and Bakhmut again. Fighting is ongoing this morning, but there are no reports of Russian break throughs.
8. It is this Bakhmut region we fear could be used if any escalation in weaponary is considered by Putin. Russian forces have thrown more munitions, airstrikes, and elite ground fighters here than likely anywhere else so far, but have made minimal gains with heavy losses.
9. There are reports that what may be in the ground in this particular region is of more value than any military strategic value Bakhmut has itself. If that was the case, it may dilute the risk of using a low yield tactical nuclear weapon here.
10. Otherwise it may be the type of place Russian would escalation weapons to try and punch a whole in the significant Ukrainian defences, with now few civilians, little media, but much Ukrainian activity.
11. Ukrainian resistance here has been astonishing. Units in several locations have held back many revolving Russian units, including SOF and contractors with regular daily Russian offensives for months, causing them significant losses and infuriating Russian Commanders.
12. The Bakhmut region is an area to monitor very closely. Russian activity here often seems inconsistent with other regions.
13. The Ukrainian counteroffensives continue in the east and south of the country with further progress reported into Luhansk Oblast and near Kherson. We continue to refrain from operational details where OPSEC remains crucial.
14. Russian Naval activity in the Black Sea increased slightly the last 24hrs with reports of activity further north and two new movements out of Sevastopol. USAF, RAF and other NATO aircraft continue to closely monitor activity here. Sea launched cruise missile are a high risk.
15. The Ukrainian airforce continue to be effective with interceptions, including again this morning. They also continue with CAP, CAS and SEAD sorties destroying more Russian vehicles, ADS, command and control and comms infrastructure.
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