This update welcomes Massachusetts to the tracker. This plus a Michigan update pushed us over 3 million voted
Welcoming Ohio to the early vote tracker. National total crosses at least 3.2 million voted
This is from @FrankLaRose (it's not on the Sec. of State's website yet). It tells a story we're seeing developing across the country: record early turnout *at this same stage in the election* for a midterm election. We'll see if there is a follow through to Election Day
We'll see if this keeps up through Election Day, but I think at this point there is absolutely no evidence that 2022 will be a low turnout election. Zero. Nada.
If you see a poll where there is a big difference between the registered voter and likely voter universes, be skeptical that the likely voter model is predicated on a low turnout election
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This update welcomes Idaho and West Virginia to the tracker courtesy of @DubickiRyan of the Associated Press. I hope to onboard CT and MS this evening (also courtesy of Ryan), and build out more statistics for Georgia's in-person early voting
For now, ignore the total voted demographic statistics on the Georgia page since I haven't incorporated the in-person early voting yet
PSA: If you or someone you know will cast a mail ballot, please follow all the directions! Having a mail ballot rejected is the most common way people disenfranchise themselves. In 2020, election officials rejected over half a million mail ballots for some deficiency
States vary quite a bit on what is required for casting a mail ballot. If you have recently moved from one state to another, be extra careful!
The most common mistake people make is with their signature. Make sure you signed everywhere you need to. Sometimes a signature is required on an inner privacy envelope (not all states require these). Sometimes you must sign on the outer return envelope
Added Montana to this update, and you'll now see links to pages for each reporting state
I know RPubs is not the greatest interface. You'll want to click the "hide toolbars" in the lower righthand side to dismiss the annoying toolbars. I plan to look at hosting options for 2022. GitHub works (what I used in 2020), but it is slow and cumbersome to update content
The gains made by Trump in 2020 among Latinos is not lost upon the Democratic Party. For example, Charlie Crist chose Karla Hernandez-Mats as his Lt. Gov running mate, a second-generation Guatemalan from Miami-Dade
Never forget the nation's largest organization to provide voter registration to low income communities -- ACORN -- was taken down by Project Veritas edited videos
An ACORN employee managed to settle for $100,000 for a deceptively edited video. But Republicans in Congress used the videos as a reason to cut federal funding to ACORN for its assistance to low-income communities (aside from voter reg), and now it is gone prwatch.org/news/2013/03/1…
Billionaires will continue to fund Project Veritas and pay their legal fees regardless of the truth of what they do because they deliver for them
Two things happening. First, midterm turnout rates are historically correlated with presidential rates. In recent years the presidential rates increased while the midterm stayed low. The 2018 election restored the relationship, which makes me suspect this will carry forward
Second, why are turnout rates higher now? Trump is an obvious. As long as he is around he drives political interest. But we've also entered a period of higher polarization on major issues. That was last seen in the 2nd half of the 19th century when turnout rates were also high