Share this page!

Enter URL or ID to Unroll

You can paste full URL like: https://x.com/threadreaderapp/status/1644127596119195649
or just the ID like: 1644127596119195649

How to get URL link on X (Twitter) App

  1. On the Twitter thread, click on or icon on the bottom
  2. Click again on or Share Via icon
  3. Click on Copy Link to Tweet
  4. Paste it above and click "Unroll Thread"!
  5. More info at Twitter Help
Karen Cutter Profile picture
@KarenCutter4
Oct 20, 2022 • 14 tweets • 4 min read • Read on X
Scrolly
The NSW Health epi report for the week ending 15 October is now out.
#COVID19Aus #COVID19NSW
You can find the full report here...
health.nsw.gov.au/Infectious/cov…
Total cases were up slightly (+1%) this week. Image
By age band, however, cases were up 10% in the 60+ age band Image
The number of people in hospital fell by 3%, much less than the 7-15% falls we've seen in the last 8 weeks Image
Numbers admitted to hospital were about the same as last week. And these numbers confuse me. We've had less than 400 people admitted each week for the last 5 weeks, but numbers in hospital are still close to 1,000. So either... Image
... people are staying in hospital a lot longer than they used to. Or maybe it has something to do with hospital acquired Covid (i.e. not counted in the admissions, but counted as in hospital with covid)? Pure speculation on my part.
30 deaths this week Image
About half the deaths were aged care residents Image
I'm giving up on trying to understand what is happening with the variants! Suffice to say they did a lot of sequencing this week and have found small numbers of both XBB (driving Singapore's wave) and BQ.1.1 (problematic in Europe).
ends/ Image
@LettersfromTim @DavidJoffe64 @GourlaySyd My experience of the pandemic is that whenever people accuse the government of playing with the numbers, it is because there is either a misunderstanding of the statistics, the definitions are unclear, or there has been an unintentional mistake
@edjegasothy @MichaelSFuhrer And there may be other differences too
@bobepidemiology @MichaelSFuhrer @edjegasothy …in more detail compared with what they publish.

As a parallel, in workers comp each state has different rules about how long you can stay on benefits and different processes for managing claimants. So you can’t directly compare success (or otherwise) of return to work measures
@bobepidemiology @MichaelSFuhrer @edjegasothy But the states all work together to try to report a consistent measure. It’s tricky, and not entirely successful, but comes done way too try to improve comparability.

I can see the same approach working with a national CDC
@darkturkey27 @MichaelSFuhrer @edjegasothy See this graph heading - "admitted to hospital within 14 days of diagnosis". Prior to Feb, they used "admitted .. within 28 days of diagnosis". Image

• • •

Missing some Tweet in this thread? You can try to force a refresh
　

Keep Current with Karen Cutter

Karen Cutter Profile picture

Stay in touch and get notified when new unrolls are available from this author!

Read all threads

This Thread may be Removed Anytime!

PDF

Twitter may remove this content at anytime! Save it as PDF for later use!

Try unrolling a thread yourself!

how to unroll video
  1. Follow @ThreadReaderApp to mention us!

  2. From a Twitter thread mention us with a keyword "unroll"
@threadreaderapp unroll

Practice here first or read more on our help page!

More from @KarenCutter4

Karen Cutter Profile picture
Apr 12
Some fact checking on this article.
TLDR: Australia has not reached a 'significant' COVID milestone
A short thread/
"Australia appears to have had at least a week where no COVID-associated deaths were recorded for the first time in more than two years."
This is simply not true. The statement is based on this Fed Health graph. Image
Yes, it does show a 7-day average of zero deaths for the most recent data points. But this ignores the fact that the graph is compiled using date of death, and it is almost impossible for someone to die, have their death registered, and included in the Fed data within a week! Image
Read 11 tweets
Karen Cutter Profile picture
Apr 5
The Mortality Working Group of the Actuaries Institute has released our estimate of excess mortality for the full year 2023.
TLDR: Excess mortality for 2023 is 5% (95% CI: 3%-7%) or +8,400 deaths.
A thread/
actuaries.digital/2024/04/05/exc…
Note that our expected number of deaths (baseline) is our expectation had the pandemic not happened.
The baseline allows for changes in the age and size composition of the population over time, plus allows for pre-pandemic mortality trend to continue.
We finished the year with deaths being much higher than expected for each of the four weeks in December (as they were in November). Image
Read 15 tweets
Karen Cutter Profile picture
Mar 27
Australian deaths counts: surveillance vs death certificates.
For some time now I have been quizzically looking at the death surveillance reporting, thinking the numbers looked too low.
A thread/
This is because of the relationship between hospitalisations and deaths.
Normally deaths track hospital admissions quite closely, but with a little bit of a lag. But for Dec23 and Jan24, this relationship changed - deaths are lower than expected based on hospitalisations. Image
A few theories were floating around about why (eg. JN.1 less severe), but it also didnt make sense to me from looking at the Vic death reporting, and knowing the Vic wave was a bit earlier than the rest of Aust. Things just werent stacking up nicely.
Read 8 tweets
Karen Cutter Profile picture
Mar 1
The Mortality Working Group* of the Actuaries Institute has estimated Australian excess mortality to 30 November 2023.

A thread/

* re-branded as we plan to look at more than just Covid
Total excess mortality for the first 11 months of 2023 is estimated at 5% (95% confidence interval: 3% to 7%).
This is about 7,400 more deaths than expected if the pandemic had not happened.
This compares to excess mortality for 2022 of 11%.
With only one month of data still to be reported for 2023, we expect that excess mortality for the full year 2023 will be about half the level of 2022.
Read 11 tweets
Karen Cutter Profile picture
Feb 21
The ONS has released a new methodology for calculating excess deaths.
A thread/
First off, I am going to say that this is NOT a conspiracy to hide excess deaths.
This is a government institution doing its best to estimate excess deaths in a sensible way, noting where we are in the pandemic.
Now that we are going into the fifth year post-pandemic, those of us measuring excess mortality are needing to make hard decisions on how to do it.
We are in a difficult phase (measurement wise) as we cant reliably estimate a pre-pandemic baseline (pre-pandemic was ...
Read 13 tweets
Karen Cutter Profile picture
Jan 17
Last week the OECD published this paper on recent mortality trends, including yet another estimate of excess mortality.
How do the OECD results for Australia differ to the Actuaries working group results?
A thread/
oecd-ilibrary.org/docserver/78f6…
I'm going to start by saying there is no "right" answer to how to measure excess mortality.
By definition, excess mortality is the difference between actual deaths that occurred in a period, and a predicted number of deaths. And the predicted number is just that - a prediction
Depending on what you are doing, there may be valid reasons for choosing one particular prediction method over another.
In the case of the OECD, they are trying to form estimates for all OECD countries, and so choice of method can become very restricted. This is because...
Read 16 tweets

Did Thread Reader help you today?

Support us! We are indie developers!

This site is made by just two indie developers on a laptop doing marketing, support and development! Read more about the story.

Become a Premium Member ($3/month or $30/year) and get exclusive features!

Become Premium

Don't want to be a Premium member but still want to support us?

Make a small donation by buying us coffee ($5) or help with server cost ($10)

Donate via Paypal

Or Donate anonymously using crypto!

Ethereum

0xfe58350B80634f60Fa6Dc149a72b4DFbc17D341E copy

Bitcoin

3ATGMxNzCUFzxpMCHL5sWSt4DVtS8UqXpi copy

Thank you for your support!

Follow Us!

Send Email!

:(