Ukraine SITREP 1. Russian air/missile strikes continued yesterday and overnight with stand off strikes yesterday by Russian bombers targeting the Kyiv region as we had anticipated.
https://twitter.com/tcg_crisisrisks/status/1582593651917524995
2. Ukraine's Air Force said the Russian bombers launched six cruise missiles of which at least four were intercepted in the Kyiv, Vinnytsia and Chernihiv oblasts.
3. A significant number of kamikaze drone attacks also occurred, with the Ukrainian Airforce reporting at least 12 interceptions.
4. Russian VKS aircraft continue to be primarily in the form of UAV/drones and some rotary activity with still a significant reduction in fast jet sorties.
5. Russia has lost many aircraft since the invasion commenced, more than 400 manned aircraft including helicopters and more than 1000 UAVs according to most Ukrainian reports, with Russia been cautious from the outset with limited successful SEAD Operations.
6. The Russian VKS have never been able to get air superiority and didn’t seem to even aim for air supremacy. Close Air Support for ground forces also seems to have reduced. Meanwhile the Ukrainian Airforce continues with Combat Air Patrols, Close Air Support and SEAD Operations
7. This week we have seen more Ukrainian airstrikes hitting Russian logistics nodes, air defences, command and control, ammunition depots, troop concentrations and vehicles, with significant UAV interceptions too.
8. Cruise missile stand off airstrikes like yesterdays targeting the Kyiv region have also reduced in recent weeks, likely as precision missile stocks become more depleted.
9. However, we anticipate more of these in the coming days, along with launches from the Black Sea, in conjunction with continued drone strikes.
10. There are reports Iran is supplying more drones and is to supply short-range ballistic missiles too, as Russia reportedly races to resupply its depleting stocks, some impacted by supply chain issues for technical parts.
11. Yesterday Putin announced the introduction of martial law in the occupied regions of Donetsk, Luhansk, Zaporizhzhia and Kherson as partisan activity increases and he tries to further legitimise the invasion.
12. Earlier this week Russian officials in Kherson announced the civilian population were being evacuated across the Dnipro river fearing a Ukrainian offensive on Kherson was imminent.
13. Civilian evacuation messaging across the occupied regions is really forced relocations.
14. As the Russian mobilisation and regeneration of forces continues to struggle the scope of private contractors is extending.
15. Contractors are reportedly heavily recruiting, training civilian militias to defend areas, replacing more conventional forces on frontlines and reinforcing Russian defences with mining and other obstacles.
16. Russian shelling yesterday and overnight was reportedly more sporadic in most regions, but constant and intensive around Bakhmut. Russian localised offensives around Bakhmut yesterday were all repelled.
17. The Ukrainian counteroffensives continue to consolidate and progress further re-securing more settlements in the last 48hrs in the south and southeast.
18. Russian Naval activity in the Black Sea remains mostly unchanged the last 24hrs.
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