Game one has come and gone. Here is how the predictions have shifted for LeBron eclipsing Kareem.
We first made these predictions here - singhpr.medium.com/when-will-lebr…
Time to update the forecast. #ContinuousForecasting
We first made these predictions here - singhpr.medium.com/when-will-lebr…
Time to update the forecast. #ContinuousForecasting
Lebron scored 31 points in the first game of the season. 31 is a better score than 70% of the games Lebron played in the last three seasons.
Our New "LeBron plays all games" forecast - 
Comparing this to the pre-season forecast. the chances of Lebron passing Kareem earlier seem to be getting better -
Game 49 or earlier is now 50% likely (up from 43.90%)
Game 51 or earlier is 85.20% likely (up from 81.80%)
Game 49 or earlier is now 50% likely (up from 43.90%)
Game 51 or earlier is 85.20% likely (up from 81.80%)
Our "LeBron misses some games" forecast -
Similar movement here.
Game 66 or earlier is not 55.60% likely as opposed to being 49.80% likely pre-season.
Game 71 or earlier is 85.90% likely vs 81.60% before.
Game 66 or earlier is not 55.60% likely as opposed to being 49.80% likely pre-season.
Game 71 or earlier is 85.90% likely vs 81.60% before.
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