Flo Débarre Profile picture
Oct 22, 2022 22 tweets 9 min read Read on X
Here is a curated collection of threads and tweets rebutting a preprint that made the rounds, illustrating the many ways in which the study is problematic. ▫️1/n Screenshot of tweets; big r...
Before we start:

- Disclaimer: I am a "dry-lab" evolutionary biologist. Part 3️⃣ is outside my strict domain of expertise.

- If you are unfamiliar with the names of the different restriction enzymes, here is how to pronounce them (sound on)▫️2/n

international.neb.com/products/restr…
1️⃣ Evolution

SARS-CoV-2's BsaI/BsmBI restriction sites are consistent with expectations from evolutionary theory. They do not look anomalous.

1a) 🧵 ▫️3/n

1c) a tweet complementing to the two previous threads with another close relative of SARS-CoV-2 that was omitted by the preprint authors ▫️5/n

2️⃣ Statistics

2a) The statistical analysis done in the preprint is an example of P-hacking*

*If you think they got the restriction enzymes right on their first try, see part 3 ▫️6/n

2b) The preprint authors are looking for even spaced fragments, but did their stats only on the length of the longest fragment. ▫️7/n

disq.us/p/2rj2xh2
3️⃣ Molecular biology

3a) The standard way of using the restriction enzymes picked in the preprint would not lead to SARS-CoV-2, because the restriction sites would be gone in the final product…▫️8/n

3b) … as exemplified by a reference (erroneously) chosen by the authors to back up their claim ▫️9/n

3c) Even the lengths of some fragments do not make sense▫️10/n

Screenshot of Fig 3A, showi...
4️⃣ People

So far we have only concentrated on the preprint’s arguments. But an exhaustive description should include a presentation of its authors. Have a look at their Twitter profiles to understand where these authors are talking from, ▫️11/n
… and to understand why researchers expressed frustration to have to spend time on the preprint, which got attention essentially because it was an extraordinary claim retweeted by big Twitter accounts, and not because it was sound work. ▫️12/n Screenshot of two tweets by...
To finish on a lighter note, here is the best joke I have read on this disaster ▫️13/n

(Explanation for non-biologists: "Bam" and "Eco" are parts of the names of other restriction enzymes
international.neb.com/products/r0101…
international.neb.com/products/r0136…)

Screenshot of the linked tweet
It seems that only a few people can see tweet 9, so here is a screenshot, and a link to the corresponding paper journals.plos.org/plospathogens/… (Figure S9)▫️14/+ screenshot of my tweet:  &q...
A couple of useful definitions (#subtweet) ▫️15/+
help.twitter.com/en/resources/g… screenshots of the definiti...
1d) This thread details how one can change one's mind within just a few days after considering arguments put forward by others and analyzing data.▫️16/+
An interesting description of the preprint and its issues, and a discussion of whether the media should report on preprints, by @KelseyTuoc in @voxdotcom. Includes a noteworthy comment by @Ayjchan (thank you). ▫️17/+

vox.com/future-perfect… screenshot: "Even scie...
Official rebuttal, in the form of a detailed review, by the Uniklinikum Würzburg (the home institution of the preprint's first author)
h/t @_b_meyer▫️18/+

In German: ukw.de/aktuelle-meldu…

In English: idw-online.de/de/news803624
1e) 🔽 An even more detailed evolutionary analysis, addressing the "circularity" issue that some sceptics criticized. ▫️19/+

A noteworthy rebuttal (see the illustration of the first tweet of this thread). ▫️20/+

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More from @flodebarre

Jan 11
[a not-so-niche thread]
In September 2021, a leaked research proposal was made public. Called "Defuse" and submitted to DARPA, it was not funded.
Some saw it as a "blueprint for SARS-CoV-2". Via FOIA, I obtained drafts of this proposal. It was not a blueprint; here's why. ▫️1/9 illustration, bats flying out of a cave
The Defuse proposal contained a contentious paragraph, in which "cleavage site" and "furin" were mentioned. The text was unclear enough for people to understand it the way they wanted, like in a Rorschach test. But the drafts are clearer. ▫️2/9 text of the proposal and Rorschach test in the background (looking like a coronavirus)
1⃣ As we have been told before, the idea behind this paragraph came from the University of North Carolina (UNC) collaborator on the proposal, and not from the Wuhan team. ▫️3/9

Read 12 tweets
Aug 18, 2023
Un fil 🧵 pour partager des informations sur BA.2.86, un nouveau variant de SARS-CoV-2.

Nouveau venu dans la grande famille Omicron, BA.2.86 est un cousin lointain des variants XBB* qui étaient devenus majoritaires en 2023 ▫️1/
Les mutations portées par BA.2.86 (et comme son nom indique) suggèrent qu’il est un descendant de BA.2, variant de la famille Omicron qui a causé un rebond de cas début 2022 ▫️2/

(🖼️ @nicolasberrod / Le Parisien, modifiée) Infographie variants Omicron, montrant BA.2.86
Mais BA.2.86 a accumulé de nombreuses mutations par rapport à BA.2, et on n’a pas encore détecté d’intermédiaire, ce qui laisse penser qu’il a pu émerger suite à une infection longue durée (qui laisse le temps aux virus pour accumuler des mutations) ▫️3/

Read 8 tweets
Jul 19, 2023
[a very niche thread]

For months, DRASTIC and Paris group lab leak activists demanded information on a viral isolate from Wuhan, WIV6, insinuating that it could be a hidden progenitor of SARS-CoV-2.

TL;DR Not only it was not a coronavirus, but the information was public. ▫️1/8 Illustration: AI generated image with coronavirus and flowers, colourful
A central tenet of the lab leak hypothesis is the idea that Shi Zhengli, of the Wuhan Institute of Virology (WIV), is hiding key data.

She already said her lab did not have a virus closer to SARS-CoV-2 than RaTG13, but for lab leakers, this is not enough: they want proof. ▫️2/8
Using public data, DRASTIC members worked to reconstruct WIV databases, hoping to find evidence in anomalous patterns.

They did so for WIV’s viral isolates, labeled WIV1, WIV2, etc. ▫️3/8

https://t.co/seU1RUM3mJ
Screenshot of the DRASTIC database shared in the quoted tweet
Read 8 tweets
Jul 10, 2023
Some people struggle with the idea that the emergence of the Covid-19 pandemic in a city hosting a lab working on coronaviruses may just be a coincidence.

But coincidences do happen. Here are some Covid-specific examples of coincidences: ▫️1/🧵
1️⃣ The first local Covid case in the UK was from the very town that had been used as an example of the starting point of an outbreak, in a BBC documentary a couple of years before. ▫️2/

https://t.co/EBqiUT4CoC
2️⃣ The first Covid cluster in France was in a ski resort called Les Contamines (“contaminer” is “to contaminate” in French) ▫️3/
Read 9 tweets
Jun 24, 2023
Le tant attendu rapport declassifié de la communauté du renseignement US-américaine sur l’origine de la pandémie a été publié pendant la nuit.

Ciblé sur l’Institut de Virologie de Wuhan (WIV), ce rapport indique qu’aucun élément incriminant n’a été trouvé. ▫️1/🧵
Lien vers le rapport :

Lien vers la demande officielle à l’origine du rapport (ciblée sur le WIV et sur la rumeur de chercheurs malades) : https://t.co/I5oBYW66Pd ▫️2/ https://t.co/VCpP9TvdHodni.gov/files/ODNI/doc…
congress.gov/bill/118th-con…
Aucun des services consultés de la communauté du renseignement US n’a de conclusion définitive :
- 5 penchent vers une origine naturelle via un animal,
- 2 vers une origine de labo, mais pour des raisons différentes (donc pas nécessairement compatibles),
- 2 d’aucun côté▫️3/
Read 14 tweets
Jun 23, 2023
Journalists: your job goes beyond reporting what people say; you have to try and find out whether what they say is actually true or not.

Here are some tips regarding the "sick workers" story: ▫️1/8
Is the story internally consistent?

- It changed over time. Initially it involved a female intern, YH. Her name is not in the final list. Why?

- Some scientists were said to have disappeared; have they?

- BH's wife is said to have died in late 2019. Is this true? ▫️2/8
- It's said to have been Covid because youngish people don't get too sick with the flu -- how reliable is this medical diagnostic?

- One of the three names was given as LastName-FirstName, unlike the two others. Isn't that odd? ▫️3/8
Read 9 tweets

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