🇨🇳OK so I've received some requests for comment on the exit of #Hu, thoughts on #Xi, etc. So here goes. You're going to disagree. That's okay. 🧵
I haven't believed Xi has been the center of power since ~2015/2016. I was working at the NDRC then & had a unique view as a foreigner. This is not a clueless think tank point of view, but many will say this is disqualifying. I don't care. Won't give more details on this.
Xi's recent moves are very Mao late 60s or Mao early/mid 70s (aside from the brief period where the Suzhou rail issues, etc were solved).
Remember, Xi was sent to the countryside to live in a cave during the cultural revolution. Mao stressed politics over economics from ~1956 until he died.
Xi's handlers are following in those footsteps
In the end, the bureaucracy will win. They always do in China. They're too smart. People who have known Xi for decades have repeatedly told me that Xi is not bright.
It'll take years, tho, for the bureaucracy to win
He's in a more dangerous place than most Westerners understand
Thank you for attending my talk. 🙏
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