Artoir Profile picture
Oct 22 β€’ 2 tweets β€’ 2 min read
Two Majors, an influential channel among πŸ‡·πŸ‡Ί milbloggers and regularly quoted by πŸ‡·πŸ‡Ί units on Telegram, just dropped the doom post to end all doom posts.

- They admit that if Kherson is liberated, it won't be recaptured any time soon.
- Mykolaiv and Odesa; forget about it.

1/2
- A resounding victory for Ukraine and supporters.
- The psychological blow to πŸ‡·πŸ‡Ί forces and society will be massive.
- A large number of πŸ‡ΊπŸ‡¦ forces will be free to redeploy elsewhere.

"The loss of Kherson can lead to the most far-reaching consequences."

t.me/dva_majors/4315

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More from @ItsArtoir

Oct 9
GulagU have released a two part video of Yevgeny Prigozhin of Wagner, meeting with ex-prisoners who have been seriously injured fighting for him, along with some amazing details on the staggering amounts of money Putin has been funnelling to him from the state budget.

1/3
In the first clip he is seen talking to amputees from his convict brigades. In the second, footage of prisoners being transported to and loaded onto IL-76s belonging to the πŸ‡·πŸ‡Ί State.

2/3
They claim Putin has given 20Bn Rubles in cash and 10Bn Rubles in military hardware to Prigozhin from the state budget and plan to release documents that not only show the transactions but demonstrate that Putin is directly involved in the mobilised prisoner programme.

3/3
Read 4 tweets
Oct 8
Absolutely insane.

πŸ‡·πŸ‡Ί Ministry of Transport announced they will resume traffic on the β€œundamaged” lanes at 16:00 local time. I’d love to meet the engineer that signed off on that.

t.me/tass_agency/15…
Read 7 tweets
Oct 2
While all eyes were on Lyman, πŸ‡·πŸ‡Ί channels are now saying that πŸ‡ΊπŸ‡¦ have made advances of up to 20km this morning N of Kherson.

New defensive lines are now at Dudchany. "The advance is very significant" Without additional reserves and aviation "This could all end badly."
β€œIt has not been possible to stabilise the front in this direction (Dudchany). The situation is difficult.”

t.me/dva_majors/2824
Read 10 tweets
Sep 20
Short 🧡 on πŸ‡·πŸ‡Ί Refuseniks.

Against the backdrop of new laws in πŸ‡·πŸ‡Ί being passed to deal with refuseniks, a video surfaced yesterday of what appears to be stacks of resignation letters to the commander of the 5th Separate Guards Tank Brigade.

1/4
The 5th Separate GTB were sent into πŸ‡ΊπŸ‡¦ on Feb 24th and were never rotated out. Video reports in πŸ‡·πŸ‡Ί media about their families Buryatia begging commanders for their return surfaced in June and the UK MOD reported on it shortly after.

2/4
Open sources indicate they fought all along the Northern axis of the invasion and ended up in the Izyum area after the failure to take Kyiv.

One of the letters visible is dated June 20th which lines up with the reports of friction in the unit.

3/4
Read 6 tweets
Sep 20
To expand on this a little further;

1/4 Ukraine struck Millerovo air base with ballistic missiles in the first days of the war. They blew up fuel trains in Crimea around the same time. 7 months ago. They’ve spent the past month lighting up Crimea.
2/4 The idea that there will be some sort of demarcation line drawn along the parts they temporarily occupy that if crossed will trigger nuclear war, is fanciful at best.

If someone can pull it off @TheStudyofWar will probably pay them 6 figures to draw their maps.
3/4 Most importantly people are still treating Putin like he needs excuses to act.

If he could have mobilised already he would have. If he could have held referendums in Donbas already, he would have.

If he thought he could get away with WMD in Ukraine - he would have.
Read 4 tweets
Sep 16
🧡1/6

The most interesting evidence so far that Ukraine may have the capability to strike targets at a range of 280km+ with domestic systems has come from an unlikely source: a high profile espionage case involving an employee of Ukraine's Pivdenne Design Bureau.
2/6

KB Pivdenne is the state owned design bureau that works with PA Pivenmash, the state owned aerospace manufacturer that famously built the Soviet R-36M or "Satan" nuclear ICBM. Post 1991 they have continued designing and manufacturing missile and space launch vehicles.
3/6

Russian born Reseda Perkova was arested on September 7th for leaking documents related to the "Sapsan" missile system to FSB agent Yevgeny Zykov.

Sapsan is one of many working names for the Grom/Grim-2/Hrim-2 ballistic missile being developed by the Pivdenne Design Bureau.
Read 8 tweets

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