Develop a framework for trading decision based on Situational Awareness, when to be aggressive and when to to use which setup.
Situational awareness helps reduce drawdowns and frustration.
Developing two types of Situational Awareness short term and long term can help you time your entries and exit better.
Early in this bear market the Situational Awareness was this is likely to be longer duration bear market based on historical observations of big increase in traded stocks in 2021.
But within duration bearish markets there can be tradable rallies. We might be due for that here.
Every trading day, first thing in the morning I develop short term Situational Awareness in the context of longer term SA and decide on which setup to focus and how much to risk.
In first few years of trading career lack of Situational Awareness would result in me giving up lots of gains. That is when I first developed the SA framework. Over the years it has been refined.
Once you have a setup in place create a Situational Awareness framework to support your setup. Write your own guide for SA that will guide when is best time to trade your setup and how aggressively.
More you focus on Situational Awareness more in control of your trading you will be. If you are struggling I highly recommend creating a Situational Awareness guide.
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All growth companies at some stage runs out of growth. That is happening to some long term growth stocks. But at same time new industries, new segments go on to grow big. Has been happening since commerce started.
Focus more on finding the next big runners. The companies that are dramatically growing revenues and profits while market is focused on old leaders like $AMZN, $FB, $NFLX
Some growth stocks daily to live up to their potential and flame out early and quickly fade. That is happening to many last few years winners.
Momentum is stocks tendency to move in the direction of prevalent trend. You can use momentum to select stocks to swing trade or position trade. 🧵
Momentum can be calculated in many ways and the period and specific method used to calculate momentum depends on your goals and holding periods.
Momentum is often used to rank stocks and then top 25 or top 50 or top 200 stocks are selected for swing or position trades. This kind of momentum is relative momentum or relative strength.
Understanding structural tendencies is the foundation to becoming profitable. A good understanding of them can help you build enduring edge.
There are many well known structural tendencies of the market that have historically proven to work and if you understand them in depth and build your trading around them , chances of you becoming profitable improve dramatically.
PEADS or Post Earnings Announcement Drift or SUE is a structural tendency of the market where stock with surprisingly good or bad earnings move in the direction of that earnings for next few months or quarters.
Many new traders approach me asking how can they become profitable quickly, the key is to develop setup specific procedural memory.
To become a highly profitable active trader understand procedural memory. It is a memory about how to perform a process like swing trading . It is implicit memory and once developed is permanent.
Procedural memory is stored in brain as one schema. So a process involving say 20 steps like entry , exit , stops and so on is not stored as discrete unit but part of one process.
Situational Awareness (SA) is a filter on top of a setup you use to determine whether it is likely to work or not and how well it is likely to work.
Every trader at some stage in their trading career recognises the importance of developing SA specific to their setup. This is a must develop skill for every trader if you want to have high returns and low drawdowns.
My SA is specific to the momentum burst setups I trade. I am constantly scanning environment to proactively identify if breakouts are going to work or not. I look at Market Monitor , 20% plus winners , wins on my existing trades to see if it is time to press accelerator or not.
Momentum Burst is a 3 to 5 day burst move where stock makes 8% to 40% move . This is a common phenomenon in market.
247 stocks in last week had 20% plus kind of move on bullish side. 130 had 20% plus down move in last 5 days. There were more bullish opportunities than bearish.
Momentum bursts can start from any level. Number of stocks in last few days had momentum burst that started from lows.