Key Takeaways from The Retention Rate Illusion by Patrick J. Wierckx (@SwitchCost )
I would appreciate to hear @d_mccar and @faderp thoughts on this paper.
You wouldn’t expect to be wrong if you thought that a business that retains 95% of its customers is stronger than a business that retains 80% of its customers , but you actually might be.
As subscription based business have gained popularity, companies are increasingly facing the issue of :
-customer loyalty
-customer retention
Abraham Wald was a Jewish Hungarian Mathematician who was part of the the Statistical Research Group at Columbia University.
During World War II , American and Allied bomber planes were suffering major casualties. The US Army then went to the Statistical Research Group for help.
The military wanted to armor areas that were concentrated with bullet holes, mainly the wings and the body.
Abraham Wald disagreed with the solution brought forward. He said that even though these areas had high concentrations of damage, the damage was survivable as the planes were still able to return home.
He advised the military to rather focus on areas that seemed to have little
This is Tom Russo of Gardner, Russo & Quinn. He returned 12% annually between 1990 and 2016 for his investors.
He looks for businesses which have two characteristics:
1.Capacity to Reinvest
2.Capacity to Suffer
Let’s dive into those characteristics
1. Capacity to Reinvest
For a business to compound its intrinsic value over periods of time, it will need to reinvest its Free Cash Flow back into the business.
This ability to reinvest and grow requires the business to have a vast TAM( Total Addressable Market)
Tom Russo finds that Global Brands possess this characteristic. Brands are able to go into emerging markets. Population growth and increases in consumer disposable income also act in their favor .