David Simon Profile picture
Oct 24 6 tweets 2 min read
Thread: How many times are you going to pratfall your way through this self-made disaster? Here we go, fucknuts: Longitudinal study of Baltimore homicides by Johns Hopkins University, 2005-2017. So thirteen years, just so you don't worry that there are anomalies here....
6 percent of victims are white in that span for a total of 202. That means an average of over 15 white residents a year slain in a city that in those years averaged about 615,000. So in Baltimore, where your chance of being white and slain is about 2.4. Or a difference of...
...less than one murder per hundred thousand over the rate you cite for Boise, which if you think that is statistically significant enough to argue against the notion that the risk of homicide among white residents in either city isn't comparable, I don't know what to say.
When I did the analysis several years ago for Omaha and OK City, the rates were near identical. Nothing about this suggests that the cost in black lives in Baltimore is not profound and deserving of societal attention and address. But it surely puts in perspective how much...
...horseshit is required for our Lords of White Victimhood to pretend that there is a statistically significant black-on-white crime problem. If that were so then it would certainly be more dramatically evident than a change in the rate of less than 1 murder per 100,000...
...the fact is the vast majority of violence in America is intraracial. This ruins the narrative for white ideologues who really, really, really need others to fear the scary black and brown people, who rely on the anecdotal, who skew stats and do it to specific, vile purpose.

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More from @AoDespair

Sep 29
And now after some considerable patience with this account, I must, again, lose it: No you fucking ideologue, it's an actual construct and studies have been around for 30 fucking years showing that a relatively small number of people are responsible for a plurality of a city's...
..violence. You can look it up before spouting what you think the phrase means, but you won't. But if American policing had not spent the last decades indulging in such race-based policies as drug prohibition and mass arrest, and teaching the marginal skill set for that work...
...to generations of cops, it might maintain the capacity to target those who repetitively do violence to others and drive urban crime rates. Again, a basic example of police work that matters and must be made to matter again...
Read 8 tweets
Sep 27
1) When a shitbird mangles an opponent's language into his own rhetoric, you can be assured of one thing, he's stuffing a strawman weak enough so he can wrestle with it. Two things can be true at once and in this case are:
2) Mass incarceration and the drug war have filled too many American prisons and have done so as an overly of systemic racism and class warfare. That has to stop and I've been arguing and writing about it for 25 years.
3) Repeat violent offenders drive violent crime in American cities. Studies showing that a relative small number of players are responsible for a huge plurality of a city's violence have been extant for decades; police work that targets this can drastically reduce crime.
Read 31 tweets
Sep 25
1) Fucknuts, I was a journalist for twenty years before any of the television. I covered these issues in detail for a daily newspaper and wrote two non-fiction accounts on violence and the drug war....
2) The submoronic trope that compares the modern police culture burdened by the corruptions and brutalities of the drug war to the policing culture previous studiously avoids one fundamental reality:
That comparison ignores the basic reality that there was no prior age because overwhelmingly white police agencies were indeed agents of overt racial suppression controlled by overwhelmingly white commanders, mayors and political infrastructure.
Read 15 tweets
Sep 25
Fool, the ruling elite doesn't give a fuck if the drug war continues unabated and another 350 bodies -- 95 percent of them male and of color -- hit the pavement in Baltimore next year and if almost every shooter stays on the street and keeps their gun...
...I mean, Christ, you don't even have to be in the ruling elite. The chance of being murdered if you are white in Baltimore is the same as if you lived in Omaha, Nebraska. Look it up because it explains why we now have a LE response to violence that now definitively shows...
...that black lives matter about half as much as they did when the arrest and conviction rate for murder in Baltimore was more than twice what it is now. You can imagine that doing without a police response to that violence and delivering all to social programming will one day...
Read 5 tweets
Sep 25
How much do you need to deconstruct reality? One example: In Boston, 1991, police explicitly identified and targeted, arrested and prosecuted 100 top suspects in multiple crimes of violence for gun, probation, other violations. Murder rate falls by 40 percent.
In Baltimore, in an era when 70 percent of homicides were cleared and 40 percent successfully prosecuted, the murder rate was half of what it is today, when the city has 15% less residents and the deterrent has been cut in half. The effect of a relatively small number..
...of repeat violent offenders on a city's rates of violent felony has been repeatedly chronicled by researchers. Which is an argument to use police resources for job one, and not for the drug war, street sweeps or mass arrest.
Read 4 tweets
Sep 25
Specious and flippanet and stupid as fuck. In the 1940s, the all-white Baltimore department was one of the most brutal and racist in America. But by the 1990s, that same department was majority-minority with POC commanders under a POC mayor. And yet that transformation did not...
...see any "peace dividends" for Baltimore in the form of a fully integrated and POC-led agency. Because by then the mission had devolved to drug warring and mass incarceration. And generations of police going forward -- most of them minority -- were trained in how...
...not to do actual police work, but instead how to clear corners and make stats. Clearance rates between 1990 and now for murder, robbery and rape were halved. Mass arrest became predominant. So to compare police work of today to 1940 ot even 1970 is a mug's game...
Read 6 tweets

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