First, it erases dispatch signals for pool generators. With so many generators in the pool, including nuclear and fossil, combined heat and power, this large and diverse group of techs receives no dispatch signals.
Second, the proposal essentially outlaws market-based renewables. The CFD is mandatory, so investments outside the scheme are no longer possible. In our view, this would be a huge mistake.
Third, the scheme dilutes price signals for the demand side. Consumers pay a constant price for energy from the CFD pool, so the price seen is a mix between pool generators’ levelised cost (LCOE) and marginal cost.
Fourth, imposing CFDs on existing generators is likely to be challenging. It is quite unclear how strike prices should be determined for existing generators.
A lot of interesting stuff happening on European power and gas markets.
Let's have a look 👇
Let's start with gas.
Extremely mild temperatures across Europe cause rock bottom gas demand. As many storages almost filled (which makes further filling slow, because of the high pressure), this spills over in the lowest spot prices in months.
Day-ahead gas prices. Note Asia
Power.
Of course, low gas prices mean low power prices - when gas plants are setting the price.
In addition, it is pretty wind. For today, we have a pretty constant output of 30 GW of wind forecasted, plus 13 GW solar at noon.
Taken together, this results in very low av prices
Germany's "gas commission", a body of experts and stakeholders, has published recommendations how to ease the burden for citizens and industry.
Core to this is a mechanism to financially support gas consumers. What exactly is the "break on gas prices"? (sorry for the name)👇
In my view, the best way to think about it is the following:
It is a lump-sum financial payment to gas consumers.
The payment is different for each customer. It is calculated based on your historical consumption and your gas tarif.
Why not a price subsidy?
Reducing the price of gas would mean reducing the incentive to save gas. Higher consumption would inflate wholesale prices. In the end, the policy would be self-defeating and would not benefit consumers.
After taking about capping "gas prices", Brussels now debates "capping the TTF".
What is the TTF and how could it be capped? 👇
TTF is a virtual trading hub set up by Dutch Gasunie. It's similar to a bidding zone in power markets. You may think of it as a location.
You can trade spot and future contracts with delivery at TTF on various exchanges (ICE, EEX) or over the counter (OTC).
There are a number of benchmark providers that publish TTF prices: ICE, EEX and the commodity analytics firm ICIS.
While details differ, they share a common objective: reporting the fair value of gas. To do so, the essentially calculate the average price paid on that day.
I’m still recovering from the weekend I spent at the gas commission, trying to develop a comprehensive €200bn policy package within 48 hours (which reduced the time allocated to sleep to about 4 hrs in total).
What did the commission recommend, and why? Here is my take 👇
But first, what’s the gas commission?
Germany spent the past year to develop all kind of crisis response policies (like a tax holiday for car fuel or subsidies public transport) but did not prepare anything to relief natural gas consumers, except scaling up existing ...
... transfer schemes for those with the very lowest incomes. That’s funny, because that’s by far the biggest problem, of course.
The "tope al gas" is a a combined fuel subsidy and electricity tax and might be rolled out across the EU.
It has one fundamental problem that's often overlooked (not exports).
If generators are hedged, it creates new windfall.👇
In many European power markets, conventional generators are hedged, meaning they sell most of their expected output months or years ahead on financial markets through forward contracts. If they are hedged, generators keep selling their actual production physically on spot ...
... markets but get compensated for the price difference between spot prices and forward contracts. A depressed spot price reduces their income on spot markets but equally reduces their payment obligations in the forward clearing. In other words, they are indifferent toward ...