Thread by @ElectProject

#earlyvote midday update 10/25: at least 9.2 million people have voted in the 2022 general election 🥳
rpubs.com/ElectProject/e…

Added Florida in-person which increased the national total to at least 9.3 million voted. The FL in-person data file is still blank, so I had to hand enter the topline numbers. Hopefully that will be fixed so I can generate more content

Of interest in the Florida in-person votes is that more registered Republicans (56K) voted than Democrats (34K). This is not just a function of which counties offered in-person early voting. Even in some blue counties like Palm Beach, more Republicans voted in-person early

A lot of Democrats have mail ballots carried over from their 2020 mail ballot requests, so it may be that Democrats who might have voted in-person early already voted by mail or plan to vote by mail

One can see emerging in the total early vote data Republicans are making up ground on Democrats, and may even surpass them in the early vote (!). Some of DeSantis's lead in the polls is thus a self-fulfilling prophesy. If Democrats would vote, the race would probably be closer

If we end the early voting period and more registered Republicans have voted than Democrats, then I will be extremely confident in predicting DeSantis and Rubio victories

A major task for Florida Democrats is to get their voters to return their mail ballots