#earlyvote midday update 10/25: at least 9.2 million people have voted in the 2022 general election 🥳
rpubs.com/ElectProject/e…
Added Florida in-person which increased the national total to at least 9.3 million voted. The FL in-person data file is still blank, so I had to hand enter the topline numbers. Hopefully that will be fixed so I can generate more content
Of interest in the Florida in-person votes is that more registered Republicans (56K) voted than Democrats (34K). This is not just a function of which counties offered in-person early voting. Even in some blue counties like Palm Beach, more Republicans voted in-person early
A lot of Democrats have mail ballots carried over from their 2020 mail ballot requests, so it may be that Democrats who might have voted in-person early already voted by mail or plan to vote by mail
One can see emerging in the total early vote data Republicans are making up ground on Democrats, and may even surpass them in the early vote (!). Some of DeSantis's lead in the polls is thus a self-fulfilling prophesy. If Democrats would vote, the race would probably be closer
If we end the early voting period and more registered Republicans have voted than Democrats, then I will be extremely confident in predicting DeSantis and Rubio victories
A major task for Florida Democrats is to get their voters to return their mail ballots

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More from @ElectProject

Oct 27
If you want to know why election forecasters are cheering for a Republican victory, it is because their fundamentals forecasting models say it will happen
More in this genre of election forecasting
Just look at how sharp the polls have moved towards the Republicans. Just look! Image
Read 6 tweets
Oct 27
#earlyvote evening update 10/26: at least 13 million people have voted in the 2022 general election 🥳
rpubs.com/ElectProject/e…
And that is without the Georgia evening update
We'll add just shy of 3 million votes today
Read 4 tweets
Oct 22
#earlyvote evening update 10/21: at least 6.6 million people have voted in the 2022 general election 🥳
rpubs.com/ElectProject/e…
Georgia recorded 140,166 in-person early votes on Friday. There will likely be an upward revision by a few thousand more in the coming days
Friday was the highest day yet for in-person voting in Georgia. Voting interest is running high and not diminishing
Read 4 tweets
Oct 21
The Washington, DC Board of Elections provides evidence of how deluded people are about "mules" using mail ballot return drop boxes. Of the 19,538 mail ballots returned so far in DC, only 5,323 (27.2%) have been returned via a drop box dcboe.org/Elections/2022…
Drop boxes are arguably *more* secure than mail boxes in that voters return ballots directly to election officials without the post office serving as a middleman
Imagine being so deluded that you camp out with a gun to videotape people returning ballots to a drop box (which in Arizona is under video surveillance by election officials and live streamed), while you ignore the mail box just around the corner
Read 5 tweets
Oct 20
Where are the Georgia early vote statistics?

Georgia runs a batch job to pull data from their servers every day, starting ~8pm. For some reason this process is very very slow, and as the number of votes increases, so does the file size, and the time to generate the file
It's a hopefully good sign the file is taking so long to generate today. Let's hope that means lots of voters were added to the file, and not a bug that required restarting the data pull
I honestly don't know why it takes to long to generate the file. My computer can crank through the entire Georgia voter file in a matter of seconds, not hours
Read 8 tweets
Oct 18
#earlyvote afternoon update 10/18: at least 3.1 million people have voted in the 2022 general election 🥳
rpubs.com/ElectProject/e…
This update welcomes Massachusetts to the tracker. This plus a Michigan update pushed us over 3 million voted
Welcoming Ohio to the early vote tracker. National total crosses at least 3.2 million voted
Read 9 tweets

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