“The world’s best and brightest” (@bundeskanzler) came to Berlin for the #RecoveryOfUkraine “expert conference” to engage in “prudent preparation” (@bundeskanzler) for🇺🇦reconstruction. @bundeskanzler and co-host @vonderleyen wanted to listen. What did they hear? A 12-part🧵 
2/ The brand-new, never-yet-heard message was:🇺🇦 needs much more help, and fast. It needs action, not promises. Help to survive to even get to reconstruction. So why did @bundeskanzler need “the world’s best and brightest” to educate him about what he can read in the paper daily?
3/ The optimistic version: @bundeskanzler 🇩🇪 needs a made-for-TV event with a bunch of highly knowledgeable talking heads (that any think tank could have convened) in order to prepare the German taxpayer for a heavy lift.
4/ The less optimistic version: @bundeskanzler🇩🇪 wants to get control of a process that could turn out to be all too costly if the EU Commission controls it alone.
5/ There are indications for both versions: @bundeskanzler🇩🇪 embraces the ambitious idea of a “Marshall Plan for 🇺🇦”. In fact, he talks about “decades” of assistance. He sets the bar high for himself. Sounds as if he is ready to own the Marshall Plan and contribute significantly.
6/ But then again, he has pushed the EU Commission to give up its plan to lead the reconstruction platform together with 🇺🇦. Now, @vonderleyen only asks for “the secretariat”. For @bundeskanzler🇩🇪, this means: more control and a reduced threat of Euro-Bonds.
7/ This was not a pledging, only a planning conference, says @bundeskanzler 🇩🇪. But where are the plans? No final communique was prepared. Instead, a report will be produced – think tank conference style.
8/ No negotiating sessions were scheduled to make progress on the governance of the planned reconstruction platform or on finance. But progress happened nonetheless even if the design of the event did not foresee it.
9/ 🇺🇦 (which has no time for “prudent preparation”) circulated a proposal for a financial coordination platform for donors, a “financial Ramstein group” to identify and channel initially short-term, then longer term funding. Seems as if progress has been made on the proposal.
10/ Problem is: the “Ramstein group” to coordinate military help works because the 🇺🇸 leads it. Is the EU, is @bundeskanzler 🇩🇪 willing to cede the leadership of the “financial Ramstein” to the 🇺🇸?
11/ By the way: the 🇺🇸, 🇺🇦's biggest donor by far, where nowhere to be seen. They had sent a relatively low-level delegation. Not a single 🇺🇸 official had a role on stage during this choreographed event. Maybe I should not overstate the relevance of this observation, shouldn’t I?
12/ So, which is it – the optimistic or the less optimistic version? Take your pick
@akuchenbecker29 @nicolange_ @HConleyGMF @gmfus @ConStelz @jan_techau @jfkirkegaard @ronja_ga @LambeckSilke @thousandfriend
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