Thread by @wartranslated

Summary of the daily livestream with Aleksey Arestovych, kindly brought to you by Anastasiya: @Anastasiya1451A

wartranslated.com/day-244-octobe…

🔥Battlefield overview

No significant changes on the frontlines, mostly tactical movement in the majority of regions. Russia is trying to stage some counteroffensive action near Svatove, Donetsk & Kherson region using massive numbers of mobilized soldiers for political gain.

Yet, this strategy will fail.

🔥Svatove-Kreminna

Despite Russian attempts to fortify and move mobilized troops to Svatove, Russian sources are reporting major problems in the defence effort & advances from Ukrainian forces.

Similar movements of Ukrainian forces are reported near Kreminna.

🔥Bahmut

The Ukrainian army repealed Russian attacks and managed to push Russians away from Bahmut.

The Russian command is sending waves of soldiers (mobilized, Wagner, prisoners recruited by Wagner), until either the mobilized or the artillery shells will run out.

🔥Kherson

Russia is transferring the mobilized soldiers to Kherson to attempt some counteroffensive actions in the Mykolaiv and Kryvyi Rih directions. Yet, those are destined to fail.

Nevertheless, as the Russian command is not planning to leave Kherson, the battle for the liberation of the region and Kherson city will be difficult and might take time.

🔥Russian mobilization

As mentioned by several experts, including US Gen. Ben Hodges, Russia is trying to buy time with the Russian bodies. There are already over 1000 KIA mobilized and many wounded.

With this level of conflict intensity, soon every Russian citizen will be affected or will know someone who died or lost a loved one in the war in Ukraine.

The morale, social contract & the trust of Russian people in their government has been broken by military failure and general mobilization.

Mishustin, PM of RF, has declared that the economy will need to further “mobilize” and support the war effort.

Why do the Russian people tolerate it? People are taken from the streets & sent to the front without training or equipment. The mobilization, the loss of life, the ruined economy – the Russian government does not care at all about its people.

Any other nation would have already revolted against the criminal regime rather than dying for it.

🔥Attacks on Ukrainian cities, Iranian drones & Israel

The efficiency of Iranian drones is decreasing as Ukraine is getting the weapons & practice in counteracting the drone attacks.

As Russia is willing to attack civilians over military targets, it’s impossible to protect the whole territory of Ukraine or any other country. Therefore, the Israel PM Lapid has declared that Israel will present proof of Iran supplying drones to Russia.

Israel is in a tough spot, as they need, first of all, to protect themselves as they can be attacked at any moment from any side. On the other hand, it is evident that whatever Iran received from Russia as payment for the drones puts Israel’s resistance at serious risk.

Nevertheless, Israel continues to supply Ukraine with medical equipment and other supplies. Moreover, now Israel & Ukraine have a common enemy and a ground for cooperation. Any future military assistance will be welcomed but may remain private.

🔥Russian claims of a potential “dirty bomb” attack

Russia keeps pedaling their own unsubstantiated claims of Ukraine preparing to use a “dirty bomb” in its own territory. Russian representatives in the UN keep spamming the council with this nonsense claim.

🔥Weapons transfer from Germany & France

Germany & France continue to send some weapons to Ukraine, which is good but still not enough. The low number of equipment donated reflects previous errors in security assessment and planning.

The EU believed in “Russian atonement & transformation” after the fall of the USSR, slashing European Army funding. Meanwhile, Russia shot their own people with tanks in Moscow in 1991, then in Chechnya, and eventually invaded Georgia and started a continental war in Ukraine.

Germany has already realised their mistake and has assigned record funding to revitalise its own army.

🔥Nuclear weapons and other empty threats

The Pentagon does not see any signs of Russia preparing for a nuclear attack at this moment.

At the same time, the US said that Russia keeps fulfilling its obligations and reports nuclear forces training as per agreement.

After the Samarkand summit, it became clear that China & India don't want to support Russian war efforts & will not tolerate the use of nuclear weapons.

Moreover, a constant repeat of nuclear threats from the Russian pundits coupled with official denial and Russia resorting to mobilization, terror attacks with drones, etc, are signs that Russia is not planning to use nukes but is searching for another solution to force…

…negotiations.

🔥G20 summit & Russia begging for negotiations

Fearing humiliation or due to poor health, Mishustin may attend the G20 summit instead of Putin, trying to beg for direct negotiations between Russia and the West.

To those still calling for negotiations and discussions with Putin's criminal regime, the essential questions are “What do you want to negotiate with Russia? To ask Russia to kill only half of Ukrainians?”

US congresspeople have retracted their letter calling for negotiations less than 24h after it was sent to Biden.

Similarly, the European Commission and EU parliament have a complete consensus regarding their support of Ukraine and the continuation of sanctions against the Russian Federation.

🔥The myth of Russian “superpower” & European “weakness”

The Russian failure in Ukraine has not only shattered the myth of Russian “superpower” but also has shown that European values are not an empty sound - Europe can & will rise in defence of freedom & democracy.

In particular, China is very unhappy with Russia for waking up & uniting Europe against military foreign aggression. Europeans are changing their economic & military strategy.

The support of Ukraine is a crucial component of European security & prosperity, as Ukraine is protecting Europe from the Russian menace & the fall of Ukraine would put at risk the rest of the continent.

Next stream: Wednesday, 26th of October.