Tuesday COVID meeting Cochin 25 October

❤️Special topic: Death during marathons, Thread👇

COVID hospitalisation declines further

Patients requiring ICU, O2 continue to fall after recent Onam surge

Inpatients mostly 80+ age, multiple co morbidities

Testing rates low

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We discussed a special topic:

Are marathons or half-marathons safe?

Premise: recent deaths during such events in Delhi (16 October) Kolhapur Maharashtra (18 September) and elsewhere

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timesofindia.indiatimes.com/city/kolhapur/…
Our panel included several marathon runners among doctors, multiple specialists and doctors who organise marathons. Our special guest was Dr Dhananjay Shukla from Gwalior, a veteran marathon runner.

Our consensus:

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1. Marathons and half marathon are “extreme sports” events, compared to walking, cycling or swimming.

They require a certain level of fitness, sustained training towards such levels of exertion.

They are not recommended for individuals without prior training.

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2. Deaths during marathons are nothing new. In fact the first marathon runner, Pheidippides, collapsed and died.

Although deaths are reported, the numerator of death is tiny against a large denominator comprising tens of thousands of people who participate in such events.

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3. Participation in extreme sports during the pandemic:

2 considerations:

1) if the person had a moderate bout of Covid recently, it is best that they do light exercises when cleared by his doctor, and avoid extreme sports events.

2) Never do this while ill with COVID

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4) Our own IMA Branch in Cochin, one of the largest, has held multiple 1/2 marathons over past decade, no deaths occurred. None have occurred in the combined memory of all those who attended today. Deaths are rare.

However we haven’t held a similar event after the pandemic.

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5) We don’t endorse or recommend “blanket check ups for everyone”. The preventive value of such an approach will be low, and will not justify the cost and effort.

However, at an individual level, based on risk stratification, people can check with their own doctor.

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6) Older people are more likely to have heart disease, which is often silent. Unfortunately, we don’t have a perfect test to pick up heart disease. They have high false negative rates as well as false positive rates.

Those with risk factors, check with their family doctors.

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7) Although there are several seniors (70+) who have been running marathons for decades (Note: they are seasoned athletes), we do not recommend anyone to *start* participating in marathons at a later age. There is no age cut-off to start (maybe 55), esp.those with high risk.

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8) We reviewed pertinent medical literature and the following facts were noted:

a) it is common to have elevated cardiac enzymes after marathon, *without* having a heart attack.

This means that we are putting our hearts under extreme stress with such events.

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B) A negative cardiac evaluation before a marathon, is no guarantee that a death will not occur.

Why? Deaths have many causes. A sudden death can occur from electrical failures of the heart (arrhythmia from conduction defect), which need not be picked up during check ups.

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9. “Runners don’t quit” rhetoric may sound ambitious during sports. But this might not be the best option for health.

In other words, if a runner feels tired, breathless or has chest pain during a race it’s better to stop and get medical attention.

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10. The death in Delhi apparently occurred in spite of having all the advanced cardiac resuscitation devices available.

We still recommend holding marathons *only* after adequate defibrillators and medical care points are posted at regular intervals.

Be well-prepared.

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11) For any sports, it is important to start training slowly, build up gradually - preferably under professional supervision and also know and respect our individual limits.

Excessive comparisons to other people at the gym can be dangerous.

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12) We recognise that long Covid is a problem particularly in people who had required COVID hospitalisation. Such individuals must be more careful. Those with long Covid symptoms should not be participating in marathons or extreme sports events.

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13) One practical problem with the pandemic is that some people who had been running half marathons earlier might have taken a long break.

Such people must be careful while participating, after long breaks.

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In summary, deaths occurring during marathon or half marathons are extremely rare events.

But for the person who died, it is clear that the death would not have occurred in the absence of the event. There is no easy solution here. Discretion is the better part of valour.

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Linking my article on sudden deaths in young adults, it has links to several of my prior works, especially the one about CPR, cardiac testing and its limitations.

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(See thread above 👆 for context)
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More from @RajeevJayadevan

Oct 26
Wisdom from Bayesian thinking.

Example on thread.

We often see people making blunders when presented with new information, while others get it right each time.

What’s the difference between the two groups of people?

Bayes' theorem explains why.

1/6

x-team.com/blog/bayes-the…
Bayesian thinking is basically about choosing wisdom over panic.

It involves a “prior” which means one needs to see the new information in context, and also being prepared to update one’s position based on accumulating evidence.

Recent example.

Monkeypox.

2/
When lots of people started tweeting on it, those who were hearing about it the first time, believed it will rapidly spread throughout the world.

Even smart people believed that, including some of whom I admire.

Some of us, on the other hand, said clearly it won’t happen.

3/
Read 8 tweets
Oct 26
UK Cardiologist Rae Duncan explains Long COVID beautifully.

Abnormal, prolonged immune response damages the inner lining of blood vessels.

Micro clots form, of abnormal molecular structure, that the body’s usual mechanisms can’t get rid of.

They show up in various organs.

1/2
Dr Duncan’s talk at 33 minutes into the video, where she describes a young man who got COVID, which progressed to Long COVID.

He not only lost his career, his engagement broke up.

Dr Duncan is quoted in this Nature article.

2/2

nature.com/articles/d4158…
A study on Long COVID patients reveals abnormal types of clots that are hard to get rid of.

See thread above for more.
Read 4 tweets
Oct 25
London Queen Mary Hospital study that made alarmist headlines this week.

Several media worldwide have covered this study, hence this thread.

❗️Outlook is not as bad as some news reports suggest.

They studied the outcomes of 17,871 people who got COVID before 2021 April.

1/12
They compared these outcomes with 35,742 people who did not get Covid. Then they calculated the risk of outcomes such as thromboembolism, heart failure/heart attack, death.

In a largely pre vaccine era, we know those who required hospital care with Covid had severe disease.

2/
Read 17 tweets
Oct 25
Straw Man Fallacy and other tricks used by Twitter users to attack people:

Doctor A: “Vaccine causes myocarditis in a few rare instances”

Doctor B (wants to refute, but uses a straw man for it):

“You’re saying vaccines are dangerous, but fail to realise they save lives”

1/8
For a person reading the conversation, doctor B appears to be the hero and doctor A is made to look like the villain.

That’s straw man fallacy in action.

Doctor A stated a fact, which Doctor B created a straw man out of (instead of addressing that fact, he made a straw man)

2/
What is a straw man?

Imagine you want to attack a person for the position “A” he is taking. But his facts are irrefutable. So you take a straw man approach.

You artificially create a position “B” (straw man) that he *did not make* in the 1st place, and attack THAT position.

3/
Read 8 tweets
Oct 13
Important immunology paper from University of Kiel, Germany

Quality of immune response declines with age.

Having more naive (fresh, not exposed) T cells available helps mount a better quality immune response when challenged.

Old, previously stimulated T cells don’t help.

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T cells are important in limiting organ damage in COVID-19. We need an agile (flexible) immune system to be able to do that.

A bunch of tired old soldiers can’t do as good a job as some fresh faces in the army.

2/
An older person might have very few naive (fresh) T cells left.

Such people do not respond well to vaccination (or infection) because of their (already) depleted reserve.

Further depleting it by repeated injections (more doses) or infection (let it rip) doesn’t seem clever.

3/
Read 5 tweets
Oct 12
What are spurious medications? Are they common? Should we be worried? I discuss these topics in layman’s terms.

Context: WHO’s flagging of a few cough syrup samples sold in Gambia with contaminants.

indiaspend.com/n-838516 via @IndiaSpend
A few points pertinent to this discussion

1. DEG (diethyl G) found in the cough syrup samples by WHO is known to cause kidney failure, from previous published reports. However, we do not have the full investigation report about the deaths that occurred in Gambia at this time.
2. The Government of India has done surveys of medicines sold in India and documented about 3% were of NSQ (not of standard quality). Spurious medicines are a worldwide problem. It is a continuous work in progress, with an aim to keep that % closest to zero.
Read 6 tweets

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