Thread by @dchase

People keep saying if @TimRyan ran the race he is running in 2018, he'd win by a lot. Well, half a million people have voted and the electorate looks even better than 2018.

Let's take a look at what is going on in the Buckeye State based on who has voted so far... 🧵 #ohsen

510k people have cast their ballot. At the same point, 13 days before the 2018 election, 464k people had voted.

Running 10% ahead of the best midterm electorate Ohio has seen in decades is a good start but it gets even better when you look at who are the people who have voted.

In 2018, at this point, modeled Republicans were outpacing modeled Democrats by 6%. This year? Modeled Democrats are outpacing modeled Republicans by 4%.

Not only are more people voting, the people who are voting are more favorable to Democrats than in 2018.

This isn't some mystery. The Supreme Court took an absolutely unprecedented action when they overturned Roe v Wade and upended the normal mid-term dynamics. Ohio has been center to some of the worst stories of women struggling to get the health care they need.

Combine Dobbs with a phenomenal candidate in @TimRyan running a high energy campaign that Democrats here haven't seen out of a challenger in long time and contrast it with a lackluster campaign from @JDVance1 that gives Republicans nothing to be excited about...

Folks, if you're still betting against Ohio, you're willfully ignoring tied polls and great early vote data.

All signs point to Senator @TimRyan.

All of this is based on @TargetSmart's publicly available dashboard here: targetearly.targetsmart.com/g2022?state=OH…