Thread by @drg1985

60 years ago today on the 27th October 1962, human life on Earth came the closest it has ever come to a terrible ending. Everyone alive today owes their life to this handsome devil, and most of us don't even know his name. Let's change that - a thread 🧵

First, a little historical context - in October 1962, the Cuban Missile crisis erupted with USSR responding to American missiles in Italy and Turkey by spiriting missiles to Cuba. This stand-off is often considered the most dangerous moment of the cold war: that is not correct..

..for while Khrushchev & Kennedy were engaged in frantic talks to avert disaster, the real drama was playing out deep beneath the Atlantic Ocean, unbeknownst to either leader. Away from Moscow and Washington, a deadly game of cat & mouse had begun with terrible ramifications.

Soviet submarine B- 59 had been detected by the US Navy, diving too deep to communicate with the outside world. Pursued by a US aircraft carrier & 11 destroyers, the B- 59 crew had been unable to contact Moscow for days. No one aboard knew if war had begun nor how to proceed

Attempting to force B-59 to surface, the Americans dropped depth charges, unsurprisingly interpreted as raw aggression. Senior officers on board, Capt Valentin Savitsky, political officer Ivan Maslennikov, & flotilla commander Vasili Arkhipov – gathered to formulate a response

What the Americans could not know is that the beleaguered B-59 had a nuclear arsenal; a T5 nuclear torpedo. Cut-off from Moscow, B- 59 had autonomy to respond to threats and, if required, authority to deploy the nuke. Unaware of this, the Americans continued their pursuit

The atmosphere on B-59 was oppressive. Air con had failed and the cramped enclosure was like an inescapable sauna, with temperatures above 50ºC. Carbon dioxide had risen to dangerously high levels, & oxygen & water were low – not situations conducive to rational decision-making

Depth charges constantly rocked B- 59, "like sitting in a metal barrel with someone hitting it with a sledgehammer". The rattled Savitsky accepted that war had already begun. "We are going to hit them hard. We shall die ourselves, sink them all, but not stain the navy’s honour"

Maslennikov agreed. Normal protocols dictated that a decision to launch required approval of the captain and political officer only. But Arkhipov’s position as flotilla commander gave him equal rank with Savitsky. For B-59 to use its nuclear weapon, all 3 would have to consent

With Savitsky and Maslennikov resolved to fight, the decision to strike now rested entirely upon Arkhipov’s broad shoulders. Upon his word, the Randolph would have been completely vaporised by the nuclear payload, an act that would have certainly triggered a Third World War.

Neither the Kremlin nor the White House knew that this momentous decision was being made. In the words of historian Arthur M. Schlesinger Jr, "this was not only the most dangerous moment of the Cold War. It was the most dangerous moment in human history."

The commander was, however, no stranger to pressure. Only the year before, he served on the K- 19 submarine, when its nuclear reactor coolant system failed. To stave off a nuclear meltdown, Arkhipov & the crew had improvised a secondary coolant system & narrowly averted disaster

This K-19 incident was infamous throughout the Soviet navy, & Arkhipov’s courage was widely known and deeply respected. Now, aboard the sweltering B- 59, all eyes fell upon him. Facing his fellow officers, he resolutely vetoed their request to engage.

A passionate argument ensued, yet his contention remained that launching the T- 5 meant total nuclear war was inevitable. To do so without complete information was the height of madness, he argued; instead, he urged that they surface and re- establish communication with Moscow.

Finally, Arkhipov won his colleagues over. By that stage the White House had become aware of the North Atlantic chase, ordering B-59 be allowed return to the USSR unmolested. It was only much later before either Moscow or Washington realised how close to destruction we had come

This day 60 years ago, the reasoning of Arkhipov prevented Armageddon. Decades later, the director of the National Security Archive, Thomas Blanton, put it succinctly: "a guy called Vasili Arkhipov saved the world". It is no exaggeration to say we owe our very lives to his logic

For some reason, neither Arkhipov nor his fellow country man Stanislaw Petrov (whom I've written about before) are household names, but they really should be: had less reflective people been in charge, none of us would have survived; a sobering thought

https://twitter.com/drg1985/status/1177293537097998338

Now, with Putin's nuclear threats, we might be forgiven for a sense of déjà vu. I only hope that if history strives to repeat itself, that new heroes of reason like Arkhipov and Petrov arise to ensure that critical thought never becomes afterthought. This, we can only hope

Anyway, thanks for reading - these stories are to me an illustration of just how vital critical thinking is, & for that reason I opened with them in my book "The Irrational Ape", on and why we get things so dangerously wrong: you can check it out here: tinyurl.com/2s39vu3y

...and just to clarify as I'm asked a lot, if you're in North America, it's got a different title, "Good Thinking", and new content too. Hope you enjoy!
amazon.com/Good-Thinking-…