Thread by @FortuneMagazine

Even as Russian missiles continue to pound Ukraine, Vladimir Putin has already lost the war in one crucial respect.

Russia’s oil power is shrinking drastically, probably forever. 🧵 bit.ly/3NgyhbM

2) In a 524-page report, the International Energy Agency (IEA) laid out three scenarios depending on whether major countries stick to their green-energy commitments.

“Russian fossil fuel exports [will] never return in any of the scenarios…to the levels seen in 2021.”

3) Instead, the agency expects Russian oil and gas revenues to drop by more than half in 2030.

Meanwhile, European imports are likely to increase from:
👉the U.S.
👉the Middle East

4) How big of a deal is it for Putin?

Quite dizzying, considering that his country supplied 20% of the world’s fossil fuels until last year. bit.ly/3NgyhbM

5) Europe’s energy crisis concerns millions of people living on the continent, whose energy bills have rocketed over the past year. bit.ly/3sClcQA

6) Indeed, for the first time, the IEA predicts that global consumption of fossil fuels will reach a high point, or level off, because of changes already underway.

For instance, as EV sales ramp up, global oil demand will peak in the mid-2020s.

7) In fact, the IEA believes this year’s seismic events could push countries to speed up their energy transition, since EVs, and solar and wind power are increasingly seen as far less vulnerable to upheavals from war and sanctions.

8) According to the IEA, the key question now is whether a global recession will pose a setback for clean energy, or whether it will catalyze a faster action.bit.ly/3NgyhbM