Spyros Lytras Profile picture
Oct 28 20 tweets 5 min read
Recently I've been too busy to engage with the latest cuckoo discussions on SARS-CoV-2 origins, but I wanted to comment on the Senator Burr report that's making the rounds, especially since they use a figure I made (!) for their fig2 help.senate.gov/imo/media/doc/…
First things first, I was never consulted about this report or had any knowledge of it before the last 24 hours.
To my understanding this is a US senate commissioned report assessing the origins of SC2. Not sure who actually wrote it (don't really care), but they've done a very VERY bad job at reporting the science on this topic... here's some thoughts:
1. The report seems to assume that my figure 2 phylogeny is the single way these viruses are related, but this isn't the case. this tree is derived from only one non-recombinant bit of the viruses' genomes.
In fact, the GBE paper shown at the bottom of fig2 (but not referenced or mentioned in the report's text) goes into great depth about how important recombination is and how every chunk of the viruses genomes has a very different evolutionary history: doi.org/10.1093/gbe/ev…
2. The report states how 'the earliest variants of SARS-CoV-2 were well-adapted for human-to-human transmission' and how this 'represent a significant break from the precedent of other zoonotic spillovers involving respiratory viruses', but this is largely misleading...
one example of many other large-scale zoonotic human pandemics being very 'well-adapted for human-to-human transmission' is the avian flu 1918 pandemic and swine flu 2009 pandemic...
I mention this since we recently discovered that a single amino acid change at flu's NP protein can evade an important human-specific immune response and that change has happened in both 1918 and 2009 independently: doi.org/10.1101/2022.0…
These 'human-adapted' changes however most likely happened in the respective animal hosts BEFORE the viruses spilled over into humans (with the earliest known 1918 pandemic sequences having the human-adapted residue: nature.com/articles/s4146…)
this is only one of many examples where changes that increase infectivity in a host take place before the host switch (if 'human-adapted' changes had to be engineered in a lab we wouldn't have any zoonotic pandemics anyway...)
So, the report is being rather disingenuous about how different the COVID-19 pandemic is to other historical large-scale pandemics.
3. There is a rather odd comparison between the COVID-19 pandemic and the H7N9 flu epidemics in China
The H7N9 viruses circulate in birds many of which are farmed and come into very frequent and close contact with humans and in China there's been at least 5 H7N9 epidemics from independent sources documented in the last 10 years doi.org/10.1016/S1473-…
this is a different story to SARS-CoV-2's essentially one-off spillover. The genetic data support that SC2 was introduced in humans in 2 spillover events, BUT these 2 events happened at almost the same time from a single host population source: doi.org/10.1126/scienc…
thus the comparison to different H7N9 viruses spilling over from farmed birds repeatedly but months apart is irrelevant (not to mention the date typos that make you wonder if anyone proof-read this report...)
4. My final point is about how similar our understanding of the SARS-CoV-1 emergence origins is compared to that of SC2, since the report makes it sound like we know everything about SC1 and nothing about SC2 origins...
We recently performed a very comprehensive analysis to see, once you account for the complex recombination patterns in these viruses, how close sampled animal sarbecoviruses are to SC1 and SC2 respectively: virological.org/t/the-comparat…
what we find is that the recombination-free closest common ancestor (recCA) to each virus is basically of equal identity ~99%, while the whole-genome similarity between SC2 and its closest bat virus (~97%) is higher than that of SC1 and its closest bat virus (~96%)
All in all, this report cherry picks data and in many cases makes assertions that completely contradict the scientific facts and data that are available.
It also provides no actual evidence for a lab origin of the virus (WIV just being in Wuhan is NOT real evidence of a lab leak) and contains plenty of political 'US vs China' discussion points (that imho obstruct the scientific search for the pandemic's origins).

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More from @SpyrosLytras

Feb 9
Now onto the technical bits! When viruses recombine with one another different segments of their genomes will have different evolutionary histories (since a recombinant bit used to technically be in a different virus before recombining into the one we're looking at)
That's why making a phylogeny based on a whole-genome alignment of recombinant viruses can be extremely misleading! Accounting for complex recombination patterns had already been deemed important in early analysis of SARS-CoV-2's pre-pandemic evolution: nature.com/articles/s4156…
We compiled a dataset of 78 sarbecovirus genomes (including SARS-CoV-2 and SARS-CoV), meticulously aligned them and started looking for recombination signals! (for those uptodate with things, the Laos viruses are not here. will get to these at the end)
Read 23 tweets
Nov 23, 2021
In light of the re-sparked discussions about the SARS-CoV-2 furin cleavage site origin I wrote an update on my original @virological_org post (posted more than a year ago... how time flies...) A few points here: 🧵
virological.org/t/the-sarbecov…
Given the available sampling data, I think that the most likely origin of the FCS is copy-choice recombination from a yet unsampled RmYN02-like virus clade.
Why natural copy-choice error? i) Bill Gallaher has done a great job describing a potential mechanism involving a suspicious palindrome near this genome region: doi.org/10.1007/s00705…
virological.org/t/tackling-rum…
...
Read 6 tweets
Sep 28, 2021
We got a new paper now published at @ScienceMagazine !! 🎉 The prenylated form of OAS1 can sense SARS-CoV-2 in humans and protect against severe COVID19!
paper here: science.org/doi/10.1126/sc…
+ thread here:
my favourite bit? the sequence responsible for prenylation has been lost in the horseshoe bat (Rhinolophoidea) OAS1 protein through an ancient retrotransposition event! This finding brings in new questions about how these CoVs interact w/ their reservoir bat hosts.
big congrats to @virologist_atu who led this effort and to all the authors involved! it's great to see the final product of a project that's been maturing since the very start of the pandemic.
Read 4 tweets
Sep 17, 2021
So, this excellent preprint came out a few hours ago and I have to say we’re getting closer to understanding where SARS-CoV-2 came from and where similar pandemic CoVs might be! researchsquare.com/article/rs-871… 🧵⬇⬇
Got home and gave it a proper read (i.e. stared at the supplementary phylogenies) and here are some interesting bits below: (I’m gonna go through the trees for some non-recombinant fragments, so fig2 here is helpful)
The fragment 3 tree is important, cause for this region BANAL103 and 52 seem veery close to SARS-CoV-2. This genome bit is probably the evolutionarily closest relative to SARS-CoV-2 to date. (need to run some dating once the seqs are out).
Read 12 tweets
Aug 30, 2021
Here are some extra twitter thoughts on our perspective on the likely origins of the COVID-19 pandemic recently published @ScienceMagazine - with Wei Xia, @blJOg , @john_jxw , @robertson_lab . 🧵⬇
science.sciencemag.org/content/373/65…
Despite the storm of opinions on and constant politicisation of the search for the origins of SARS-CoV-2, imho the science should really be focused on increasing our efforts for virus sampling and surveillance.
Recent sampling in Yunnan has uncovered members of a CoV population that is closely related to SARS-CoV-2, but unlikely to be that of the proximal ancestor of SC2 (due to the significant phylogenetic distance btn the viruses).
Read 14 tweets
May 28, 2021
Preprint updated with a lot of exciting new analyses and data! biorxiv.org/content/10.110…
The world is going mad about the origins of SARS-CoV-2, so we did some cool recombination analysis and phylogenetics! I'll briefly explain the key takeaway points below (mini-🧵):
We find ample evidence of recombination across the evo history of SARS-related viruses. We determined the clearest recombination breakpoints across these genomes and split the alignment into non-recombinant genome segments to make some trees.
Looking at the non-recombinant phylogenies it is clear that there have been multiple relatively recent recombination events among the closest relatives of SARS-CoV-2, shuffling the topologies of the trees (read the preprint for details🙂).
Read 9 tweets

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