Spiegel reports that Western intelligence intercepted Russian radio messages end of last year discussing nuclear strikes against Berlin plus the Ramstein and Büchel air bases.

The story speculates that Russia did this to intimidate Scholz — successfully?
spiegel.de/politik/wladim…
The story quotes Joachim Krause, director of the @ISPK_org Kiel Security Policy Institute, who speaks of “nuclear signaling” (making threats in radio transmissions that you know the other side will intercept).

He said it’s a “cosa mentale” to remain cool & don’t freak out.

2/
Question is whether Russian threats triggered reluctance of Scholz & others to supply Ukraine with Western tanks.

In April, Scholz cited risk of nuclear war as reason not to send those tanks.

Problem: This signals Putin that nuclear blackmail works.

3/
politico.eu/article/german…

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More from @vonderburchard

Oct 27
Greece and Germany are "no longer in a relationship between weak and strong, between borrower and lender," said PM Kyriakos Mitsotakis in Athens next to Chancellor Scholz.

Yet he cautioned that both sides still need to find a "positive" solution on Greek demands for reparations.
Greece's Mitsotakis said that EU energy/gas price spat must be solved without an extraordinary leaders' summit in November.

"It would be terrible if that came back to us [EU leaders]. This must be resolved at the level of the energy ministers," Mitsotakis said.

2/
Scholz urged Turkey to stop threats against Greece in a dispute over Greek islands in the eastern Mediterranean.

“It should not be the case that NATO partners question each other’s sovereignty,” Scholz said. “All issues must be resolved on the basis of international law."

3/
Read 4 tweets
Oct 26
The next episode in the Franco-German drama: Macron and Scholz meet today in Paris — but while 🇩🇪 announced there would be a joint press conference, 🇫🇷 declined to host one.

That would be quite a rebuke, similar to what Orbán recently faced in Berlin.
politico.eu/article/olaf-s…
I wrote “would be” a rebuke, because my smart colleague @cleacaulcutt in Paris reckons that if things go well between Scholz and Macron, the latter might spontaneously put on a press conference to show goodwill.

If not, things would inevitably look awkward/bad between both.

2/
Scholz has landed in Paris / Monsieur le Chancelier est arrivé 🇩🇪🇫🇷

3/
Read 6 tweets
Oct 21
In what sounds like a swipe against U.S. push for decoupling from China, Scholz said in Brussels that he wants to maintain close trade ties with Beijing

"The EU prides itself on being a union interested in global trade and it does not side with those who promote deglobalization" Image
Asked about a report that he wants to force through China's purchase of a Hamburg port terminal against criticism and warnings from his own government and intelligence services, Scholz said that "nothing has been decided yet. There are still many questions to be clarified."

2/
Scholz sought to play down the importance of China's Hamburg port deal:

"It is not a question of selling the port, as in Zeebrugge [in Belgium] or Piraeus [in Greece]. At most, it's about participation in a terminal, as is also the case in some Western European ports."

3/
Read 7 tweets
Oct 21
More EU debt? Fresh signs emerged early this morning from EU summit in Brussels that Germany and Netherlands are willing to explore a new EU finance instrument like SURE — based on loans, not grants — if existing money pots like the Recovery Fund or RePowerEU aren't enough.

1/
Such EU financing might be needed to cushion the fallout of the energy crisis in some countries that can't afford big relief packages like Germany's €200 billion "Doppelwumms."

Following first day of summit, 🇩🇪 Chancellor Olaf Scholz left the door open to such a solution...

2/
"We made a decision here that gives a mandate to investigate what is possible," Scholz said in reply to question by POLITICO about new debt.

Similarly, Dutch PM Mark Rutte said that if existing money wasn't enough, the EU would investigate "what might be needed" additionally

3/
Read 6 tweets
Oct 20
What happened yesterday between Berlin and Paris is truly concerning, not just for Franco-German partnership but the entire EU.

Following growing tensions and the inability to agree on energy & defense, 🇫🇷 and 🇩🇪 postponed a long-planned summit. Macron cancelled Scholz [THREAD]
The official reason given by Paris and Berlin are "difficulties on the agenda of some ministers."

It's a wild excuse, although partly true (at least five German ministers, including FM Baerbock, had complained that the summit date next Wednesday clashes with their holidays)

2/
Although I have sympathies with ministers like Baerbock or Faeser, who want to go on holidays with their children who just happen to have a school break next week, that can't be the reason to cancel such a summit amid war & energy crisis (and it also isn't the real reason).

3/
Read 9 tweets
Oct 12
Orbán said some wild things in his Berlin interview.

My highlight is his reply to whether it’s not contradictory that Hungary benefited so much from civil rights & liberties in past 30 years but is now restricting them:

“I haven’t thought about that yet. That’s a good question” Image
It’s minute 44 of the video below.

Other remarkable statements:
- US & Russia must negotiate Ukraine’s future (thus Donald Trump is “hope for peace”)
- truce can best be achieved by not sending so many weapons to 🇺🇦
- war wouldn’t have started with Merkel
Journalistically I’m not happy with how the interview went.

There are so many times where Orbán said crazy stuff (that he was the only leader seeking to avoid war by negotiating with Putin, that stopping weapons deliveries to 🇺🇦 would make it easier to achieve peace deal etc…)
Read 5 tweets

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