Thread by @kamilkazani

Russian export structure is simple. You just need to:

1. Take few key industries under yr direct control (oil, gas)
2. Enforce compliance of the oligarchs controlling smaller industries (e.g. metallurgy)
3. Prevent any independent fortunes emerging in other industries

That's it

https://twitter.com/BoBo_Rules/status/1586028918821515266

No independent fortunes -> No one can challenge the supreme power

Now compare Russian export structure with Turkish. Its economy is way more complicated and allows for independent fortunes to emerge. That makes regime less stable. Controlling Turkey is much harder than Russia

Russia has major exports revenues generated by a few extractive corporations -> Leader has an option of destroying independent fortunes or preventing them from emerging -> He'll do it

If regime can sacrifice economic progress for political stability, it will do it. Russia can

Unlike Russia, Turkey does not have gigantic extractive corporations -> The cost of blocking the progress is almost prohibitively high -> Leader is less likely to prevent the rise of new industries

May be Erdogan would sacrifice progress for stability. He just can't afford it

This is a major factor explaining why Russia is so bad at drones for example. Creation = Disruption. If you maximise stability, you must minimise disruption. You must get rid of disruptors (=creators). So you just can't build anything new. That's the cost of stability

Rule of thumb:

Any ruling elite would sooner or later sacrifice progress for stability. If it prohibits progress, that's natural and requires no explanation. If it doesn't, it means it feels strong evolutionary pressure that forces it to allow progress (= creation = disruption)

A ruling elite allowing creation and thus disruption is unnatural. That requires special explanation. Most probably, it means that it fears its foreign enemies so much that it has to allow creation within its own boundaries. So external threat >>> internal threat (creators)