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Oct 29 • 4 tweets • 1 min read
#earlyvote end of day update 10/28: at least 18.3 million people have voted in the 2022 general election 🥳
rpubs.com/ElectProject/e…
Notable out of Georgia is the Black share of the early electorate has slipped to 29.9% in a strong day of Friday voting

Warnock advanced to the run-off in 2020 with 27.7%
Sunday will be the last Sunday of Georgia in-person early voting before the Election (in-person early voting ends Friday of next week). That will likely be a strong day of Black churches' "souls-to-polls" voter mobilization
The Georgia Secretary of State's office notified me the Sunday absentee ballot file will be delayed Sunday evening due to system maintenance. I probably won't run the numbers until Monday morning

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More from @ElectProject

Michael McDonald Profile picture
Oct 27
If you want to know why election forecasters are cheering for a Republican victory, it is because their fundamentals forecasting models say it will happen
More in this genre of election forecasting
Just look at how sharp the polls have moved towards the Republicans. Just look!
Read 6 tweets
Michael McDonald Profile picture
Oct 27
#earlyvote evening update 10/26: at least 13 million people have voted in the 2022 general election 🥳
rpubs.com/ElectProject/e…
And that is without the Georgia evening update
We'll add just shy of 3 million votes today
Read 4 tweets
Michael McDonald Profile picture
Oct 25
#earlyvote midday update 10/25: at least 9.2 million people have voted in the 2022 general election 🥳
rpubs.com/ElectProject/e…
Added Florida in-person which increased the national total to at least 9.3 million voted. The FL in-person data file is still blank, so I had to hand enter the topline numbers. Hopefully that will be fixed so I can generate more content
Of interest in the Florida in-person votes is that more registered Republicans (56K) voted than Democrats (34K). This is not just a function of which counties offered in-person early voting. Even in some blue counties like Palm Beach, more Republicans voted in-person early
Read 7 tweets
Michael McDonald Profile picture
Oct 22
#earlyvote evening update 10/21: at least 6.6 million people have voted in the 2022 general election 🥳
rpubs.com/ElectProject/e…
Georgia recorded 140,166 in-person early votes on Friday. There will likely be an upward revision by a few thousand more in the coming days
Friday was the highest day yet for in-person voting in Georgia. Voting interest is running high and not diminishing
Read 4 tweets
Michael McDonald Profile picture
Oct 21
The Washington, DC Board of Elections provides evidence of how deluded people are about "mules" using mail ballot return drop boxes. Of the 19,538 mail ballots returned so far in DC, only 5,323 (27.2%) have been returned via a drop box dcboe.org/Elections/2022…
Drop boxes are arguably *more* secure than mail boxes in that voters return ballots directly to election officials without the post office serving as a middleman
Imagine being so deluded that you camp out with a gun to videotape people returning ballots to a drop box (which in Arizona is under video surveillance by election officials and live streamed), while you ignore the mail box just around the corner
Read 5 tweets
Michael McDonald Profile picture
Oct 20
Where are the Georgia early vote statistics?

Georgia runs a batch job to pull data from their servers every day, starting ~8pm. For some reason this process is very very slow, and as the number of votes increases, so does the file size, and the time to generate the file
It's a hopefully good sign the file is taking so long to generate today. Let's hope that means lots of voters were added to the file, and not a bug that required restarting the data pull
I honestly don't know why it takes to long to generate the file. My computer can crank through the entire Georgia voter file in a matter of seconds, not hours
Read 8 tweets

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