Now that block bot has had time to do its thing, here's a dispassionate look at the Twitter deal.

The purchase price was north of $44b. That amount was raised w/a combination of $12.5b in financing, $21b in equity, & the remainder from a loan secured against his Tesla stock.
A few notes:

First, the loan is secured on stock that is down from $361 at the time of the original deal to $228 yesterday, a 37% drop.

Why is that drop important?

As the loan is secured AGAINST Tesla stock, he had to commit MORE stock than he originally negotiated.
Further, he's likely using the same loan agreements that he's been using to fund a cash-poor, stock-rich lifestyle (not unusual among the wealthy) - meaning that the bank can FORCE him to sell stock or cover the difference w/more stock/cash if the price drops.
This creates a precarious financial balance:

If Twitter doesn't earn, that will negatively affect Tesla stock prices, which could force a cover w/more Tesla stock or cash which would put further downward pressure on Tesla stock.
You know that scene from the HBO miniseries "Chernobyl" where Valery explains to the court how a "positive void coefficient" created a self-reinforcing buildup of heat that ended w/the #4 reactor blowing itself apart?

Musk has that as ~1/4 of his Twitter financing.
Second, in addition to the purchase price, Musk now pays the buyout packages & fully-vested stock prices of the employees he wants to fire.

For JUST the top three executives he's already fired, that's ~$200 million. That gets added to the debt which goes on Twitter's books.
Third, Musk isn't going to take on Twitter's debt as personal debt. That means it goes on Twitter's books, which already weren't looking too good.

Operating at a loss for most of its history, Twitter has JUST started to eek out profits, but now that's not enough.
Conservatively, financing that debt will cost about $1b a year.

Last year, Twitter lost $221m. The year before, $1.1b. Covering that debt doesn't look likely in the short term.

Musk said he plans to double revenue within three years, but that says nothing about PROFIT.
Fourth, ad sales account for about 92% of Twitter's revenue.

Those ad sales only went up once Twitter started aggressively going after troll and bot accounts.

No brand wants its ads posted in a stream of people writing the worst-possible thing they can think of to write.
This is why, even though Musk courted the "burn it down & post everything" crowd, his statements to the advertisers - that it WASN'T going to be a free-for-all-hellscape - are quite the opposite.

Musk can't forever finance the debt w/o any hope of seeing a return on investment.
Doing so would endanger not only Twitter, but Tesla & all its connected companies. (See #1)

Musk knows that Twitter needs to EARN.

To earn, it needs ADVERTISERS.

To have advertisers, Twitter CAN'T be another Parler, Gab, Gettr or Truth.
Now we have a better picture of the buyout:

- Musk bought a business w/dubious profit prospects

- promising changes that could destroy the revenue it already has

- to court an audience who will turn on him if he DOESN'T

- W/a positive void coefficient of financial hardship
To be fair, Musk can pull it off.

I'm a financial dilettante who hasn't seen the inner workings of Twitter.

Maybe he sees a quick way to turn around the company & stave off financial Armageddon.

Maybe he has a pivot will greatly widen revenue streams w/o driving up costs.
Maybe he's playing a long game & is willing to live with a financial Sword of Damocles to see through something he thinks is important.

But to an outsider, it looks like a rich man bullied himself into making a bad deal.
Still, he is right in saying that Twitter has a big part to play in discourse around the world.

Sure, we can all move elsewhere, but first I think we watch what he does.

I can honestly say, good luck Mr. Musk

Some potential investors were told Musk plans to cut 75% of Twitter’s workforce, which now numbers about 7,500, and expects to double revenue within three years, a person familiar with the matter said earlier this month.…
" Musk owns approximately $28 billion in Tesla stock ... But to fund his lifestyle, Musk needs cash. And to get that cash, he's turned to loans, granted to him because he uses his Tesla stock as collateral."….
"$US21 billion of his own money into the deal's funding package. He raised a further $US12.5 billion via a lone(sic) secured against his shares in Tesla

US investment bank Morgan Stanley provided the final $US13 billion in debt financing."…

Twitter generated $5 billion revenue in 2021, an 35% increase year-on-year 92% of Twitter’s revenue came from advertising in 2021 Twitter posted a net loss of $221 million in 2021, an 80% reduction on the $1.1 billion loss it reported in 2020…

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More from @padresj

Sep 14
I have a terrible habit, something I've done over a lifetime, of not accepting thanks w/grace.

I work hard & I'm good at what I do, but when I receive thanks, I minimize & deflect.

"Thank you!" - "It's just my job"
"Great job!" - "I could have done better"
"Well done!" - "Meh"
For the longest time I convinced myself that it was humility, or an attempt to focus on the WORK & not the thanks, but REALLY it's a deep-seated fear that

"I don't know what I'm doing"
"they're just being nice"
"everybody knows I'm incompetent."

It's imposter syndrome.
I've done many jobs in many places. I've learned a lot of skills. I've put in the hours & energy to learn my tasks well

... but that fear is there

It will probably ALWAYS be there no matter how proficient I become, how many skills I build, or accolades I receive.
Read 7 tweets
Aug 21
Do a thought exercise w/me.

Think of:
- All those in Trump's inner circle

- Of those, the ones who remained in favor after he lost

- Of those, the ones who would visit Mar a Lago

- Of those, the ones who would be trusted enough for Trump to show them the documents
We've now got a pretty small circle of people. Most of them are heavily invested in seeing Trump either return to the White House or remain a force in the GOP.

So whoever tipped off the FBI about the documents must have something GREATER to gain than his continued coattails.
Furthermore, the fact that the FBI doesn't want the affidavit to be released - else they tip off the identity of the informant - says that the person is STILL within Trump's circle of trust even as he seeks out the mole.

Now we have a REALLY small circle.

So consider...
Read 4 tweets
Aug 20
Quick Primer: "Affidavit"

You're probably going to hear about affidavits over the next few weeks & it's crucial that you understand what they are and, more importantly, AREN'T.

Affidavits ARE evidence that can be presented in court.

They AREN'T, by themselves, proof.
An affidavit is a written statement, under oath subject to penalty of law in the case it is determined to be an untruthful attestation, that can be submitted as evidence.

However, the existence of an affidavit by itself is not proof that the attested action actually happened.
For example, the following are pieces of affidavits that that have been filed in support of "The Big Lie":

"Neither me or any of my friends voted for Biden."

"I saw somebody doing something suspicious with the ballot box."

"I saw Dominion workers doing sketchy things."
Read 6 tweets
Jul 28
Something to remember about Catholicism & the "Traditional Latin Mass"(TLM):

In September 2007, w/his apostolic letter "Summorum Pontificum", Pope Benedict allowed greater freedom in celebrating the sacraments in their pre-Vatican II forms.
This was in response to concerns that some, who grew up pre Vatican II, were being denied the sacraments in the form that had brought them into the Church.

Yes, the Church believes as it prays.

Yes, the Church needs unity.

But that doesn't preclude compassion.
In his letter, Benedict points to precedents: decisions by previous Popes to allow for older, non abrogated forms while older faithful still sought them.

So on September he did just that... issuing a letter that allowed TLM.

Radical Traditionalist saw it as a victory.
Read 15 tweets
May 9
I watched "2,000 Mules" so you don't have to.


The filmmakers posit they have proof that thousands of people were paid to harvest and deliver fraudulent ballots across swing states.

Their evidence is based on cell phone location data that they purchased.
Their methodology was simple:

Check the cell phone location data around each ballot box, & again around nonprofits the filmmakers considered conspirators.

They then marked every unique cell phone that was near a ballot box & those conspirators.
If that cell phone was close enough to both of those locations more than 5-10 times, the filmmakers assumed it represented a "mule" being paid to drop off fraudulent ballots from the non-profits to the ballot box.


That's it.

That's their evidence.
Read 11 tweets
Feb 24

Flynn was convicted of lying to the FBI about sabotaging sanctions against Russia.

One of POTUS Trump's first actions was attempting to remove US-Russian sanctions.

One of his last actions was to degrade US-Russian intelligence by ending the "Open Skies Treaty".
Don't let anybody tell you that "this"⬇️ wouldn't have happened if Trump was in office.

This IS happening b/c when Trump was in office, he put US interests below those of Russia.…

"Flynn spoke to Russia’s ambassador about a UN vote & sanctions against Russia, & Flynn lied to the FBI about the conversations... the day after Flynn resigned, Trump talked to Comey about “letting this go."…
Read 5 tweets

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