Thread by @KaraKarlson

This is a very succinct way to describe why I think the "immunity debt" excuse for our overflowing children's hospitals is...inane. But there are significant other flaws in the #ImmunityDebt theory, and alt hypotheses grounded in logic & data that make more sense. A 🧵 1/

https://twitter.com/chaitrovert/status/1585821920494514176

1. Immunity debt assumes kids have been out of communal activities for the past 2.5 years. That's not true. Most ppl didn't have the luxury. We were extremely careful & extremely lucky to have been able to keep our kids out of congregate care, despite 2 working parents 2/

Grandpa *retired* to watch the kids all day. We took them out of school and therapies when I knew waves were coming (after Christmas, e.g.). At this point, MM has been back at school for 2 years. LO back in therapy FT for 6 mos. Most people didn't have that flexibility. 3/

Data backs this up. Remember "everyone's going to get COVID"? Well, turns out, most of them did. Did they get COVID from staying isolated at home or masked in schools/daycare? No. They caught it from doing kid things and being around other kids. nbcnews.com/health/health-…
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If 75% of American kids had COVID last winter, then, epidemiologically speaking, it doesn't make sense that they weren't being exposed to other kids and their germs. They were. 5/

2. Most families couldn't afford to isolate. In 66% of all two person households with young kids (under 6), both adults worked at least some time outside the home. This study doesn't include single-parent families.

bls.gov/opub/mlr/2020/…

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And due to the lack of paid parental leave in this country, children as young as a few weeks old are sent to daycare. While @CDCgov pretends only kids 5+ matter b/c school, 60% of kids under 5 are in some kind of non-parent care. nces.ed.gov/fastfacts/disp…
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3. Mask "mandates" in the US were more hype than reality. Many states banned masks (& vaccination) reqs in schools. Even the federal mask mandates were challenged and then withdrawn. Again, all in summer 2021. Which set the scene for fall/winter 21-22. 8/

Thus, to the extent immunity debt would have crippled our pedes hospitals, it should have been then. It was bad, but not this trifecta bad. This, I find the data doesn't provide a solid foundation for the immunity debt hypothesis. 9/

Well then, what does? Prior COVID infection. Hang with me here. 10/

We have known for a while that prior viral infection can actually erase your prior immunity to other viruses. This isn't new, and it is very well documented. 11/

Measles infection erased detectable antibodies of up to SEVENTY-FOUR percent of prior exposure in one recent study out of the Netherlands. In Africa, measles infections was linked with a spike of *all cause* mortality for years in young kids. 12/
nature.com/articles/d4158…

TBF, we don't have the data to *prove* COVID-induced "immune amnesia". Yet. But think about it. 75%+ of kids got infected last winter. If COVID has the same immune memory destructive properties as measles, this winter we would see a wave of infection. The timing fits. 13/

So before repeating or RT'ing some article about immunity debt, think about it. Look at the source. Examine the facts (if any) given to support it. It's a convenient theory b/c if true, the gov't and policy makers have no responsibility. 14/

If it's wrong, and COVID does cause "immune amnesia," then we are setting our kids up for a worse childhood than we had. When they should be inheriting a better world.