Thread by @wartranslated

Summary of the daily livestream with Aleksey Arestovych for 29 October, kindly brought to you by Anastasiya: @Anastasiya1451A

wartranslated.com/day-248-octobe…

🔥 Battlefield overview:

No major changes on the battlefield.

Russia failed to create a good defensive frontline and, having lost the capability to advance, is starting a defensive operation of the illegally occupied territories at a disadvantage.

🔥Svatove-Kreminna

Russian sources complain about the Ukrainian army closing in on Svatove.

🔥Bahmut-Avdiivka

No major changes on the frontline. Russia keeps attacking Bahmut and Avdiivka.

🔥Vuhledar-Zaporizhzhja-Kherson

Russia is attempting to advance on Vuhledar using artillery and aviation, followed by infantry attempting to attack & advance.

Due to the previous explosion and damage to Kerch Bridge, Russia has diminished transportation capacity and serious logistical problems. The remaining key railway and road passing north of Mariupol are already under Ukrainian fire control (e.g. HIMARS).

The Russian host in the Kherson region has an increased supply demand due to the transfer of additional mobilized troops. For now, the Russian troops in Kherson & Zaporizhzhja are critically dependent on this supply route.

Ukraine taking control of this route would lead to the collapse of Russian logistics in the South.
Therefore, the Russian command is fearing the Ukrainian counterattack in Volnovaha direction and is trying to prevent Ukraine from cutting this supply route completely.

This is a major & critical threat to the Russian war campaign, yet, the Kremlin couldn’t spare more than 10 BTG to try to solve this problem.

🔥The last Russian hope – US Republican party

Russia is buying time in hopes of somehow not losing this war completely if the Republican party takes over Congress after the Midterm elections & stops the military aid to Ukraine.

Yet even the rise of the GOP to power won’t change the US public opinion & support for Ukraine. Moreover, the lend-lease is already in place and the US global strategy requires defeat & controlled dismantling of the Kremlin’s regime.

🔥The big picture

German President Steinmeier declared that Germany cannot keep relying on the US military capabilities and new security arrangements must be created in Europe.

The EU is already participating in training and funding the Ukrainian army, which reflects a fundamental change in EU strategy. Other countries, such as India are also actively restructuring their security policy.

Even Gen. Hodges admitted that the US grossly overestimated Russian military capabilities and Russia is losing much faster than expected. Thus, the US is forced to review its long-term plan and global security strategy due to a speed-up of the Russian collapse.

The new strategy will require an increase in its geopolitical activity worldwide (e.g. arrival of 101st US Army division to Romania) and an increase in weapons supply to Ukraine, ensuring a controlled dismantling of Putin’s regime.

We may see big geopolitical processes starting in the US in Nov/Dec 2022.

🔥Sevastopol

Several Russian warships were hit, with Admiral Makarov damaged and another ship sunk in the port of Sevastopol (temporary occupied Ukranian Crimea).

Fuel storage in Sevastopol Navy Base was also set on fire, reportedly by a drone attack.

Russia was searching for a way to break the grain deal for a while now, as they still have problems exporting Russian fertiliser and breaking the grain deal would be another way to pressure Ukraine.

Now, Russia is accusing Ukraine of hitting the Admiral Makarov warship that was just peacefully firing missiles to attack Ukrainian civilians (e.g. in Vinnytsia).

🔥Russia breaking the grain deal

Russia unilaterally exiting the grain deal may backfire, as the UN and Turkey, which were the two guarantors of the grain deal, may not take it lightly. The UN already stated that the grain blockade puts 100M people at risk of starvation.

At the same time, President Erdogan will not appreciate Russia putting in cause his authority & prestige by disrespecting the deal that he facilitated.

🔥Infighting & the military command crisis in Russia

The removal & condemnation of military commanders in Russia became public now. Kadyrov, Prigozhin & Surovikin are publicly attacking Putin’s favourite general, Lapin, and forcing Putin to remove Lapin from his post.

Either the infighting is getting serious or, which is even worse, Putin has lost control over his henchmen.
The removal of experienced commanders like Lapin, leaves one question open: “Does Russia have any gifted commanders left to lead the Russian troops?”

While the Ukrainian army has many extremely successful and creative operations in this war that demonstrated the skill of Ukrainian military commanders, Russia seems to have a lack of capable commanders that could take Lapin’s place.

🔥Russian charade at the UN

Russian spokesperson Zakharova has accused the UK of explosions at the NordStream1 & NordStream2. The UK has already denied these ridiculous allegations.

At the same time, the recent allegation of Liz Tuss’s mobile phone security breach may also be part of a Russian PsyOps, attempting to create a rift between UK and US. This shows the desperation and impotence of the Kremlin’s regime.

Just one day after Russia complained about “weaponised mosquitoes” at the UN, Russian representatives cry about “terrorist attacks” against Russian Federation in the Baltic and Black Seas.

Next stream: Sunday, 30th of October (to be confirmed).