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Annie Duke

@AnnieDuke

Oct 25

Inflexible goals aren’t a good fit for a flexible world.

1/6

After we set a goal, it becomes a fixed object.

The goal becomes the object of our grit, instead of all the values expressed and balanced when we originally set the goal, even as all the inputs that led to choosing that particular goal evolve.

2/6

The conditions in the world change.

Our knowledge changes.

The weights we attach to the benefits and costs change.

Our preferences and values change.

3/6

Read 6 tweets

Annie Duke

@AnnieDuke

Oct 25

In #QUIT, I outline the various cognitive and motivational forces that work against good quitting behavior. There’s sunk cost bias, desire for certainty, escalation of commitment, status quo bias, and endowment bias (to name a few).

1/9

I go into different mental models and frameworks to build good quitting behaviors into your toolbox, like thinking in expected value, increasing flexibility in goal-setting, establishing “quitting criteria” and contracts, etc.

2/9

I can’t emphasize enough how important these tools are — but it can be difficult to bring your team or company along as well, especially when collaborative settings add in a whole host of additional group dynamics and biases that work against good decision-making.

3/9

Read 9 tweets

Annie Duke

@AnnieDuke

Oct 24

In part, what makes goals effective is that they get you to focus on the finish line and motivate you to keep going.

But goals also keep you from quitting in a bad situation because they focus you on the finish line and motivate you to keep going.

1/4

Why? In part, because they are graded as pass-fail.

300 feet from the summit of Everest is a failure. 25 miles of a marathon is a failure.

You achieve the goal or you don’t. Progress along the way matters very little.

2/ 4

Clearly defined goals should come with a warning: 𝘋𝘢𝘯𝘨𝘦𝘳, 𝘺𝘰𝘶 𝘮𝘢𝘺 𝘦𝘹𝘱𝘦𝘳𝘪𝘦𝘯𝘤𝘦 𝘦𝘴𝘤𝘢𝘭𝘢𝘵𝘪𝘰𝘯 𝘰𝘧 𝘤𝘰𝘮𝘮𝘪𝘵𝘮𝘦𝘯𝘵.

3/4

Read 4 tweets

Annie Duke

@AnnieDuke

Oct 19

When it comes to choices about quitting, you need to stop accepting, “I’m not ready to make a decision right now” as a sentence that makes sense.

Here’s why…

1/5

Once you step back and think about it, you realize that deciding not to make a change is itself a decision.

At any moment, when you’re pursuing a goal, you are choosing to either stick with it or quit.

2/5

Sticking with the path is as much of a decision as choosing to quit.

In fact, the decision about whether to stay or go is by definition the same choice.

3/5

Read 5 tweets

Annie Duke

@AnnieDuke

Oct 17

You are probably familiar with the concept of *𝗹𝗼𝘀𝘀 𝗮𝘃𝗲𝗿𝘀𝗶𝗼𝗻*.

But you may not have heard of *𝘀𝘂𝗿𝗲 𝗹𝗼𝘀𝘀 𝗮𝘃𝗲𝗿𝘀𝗶𝗼𝗻*.

What is the difference?

One stops you from starting. The other stops you from stopping.

1/8

Loss aversion comes from Kahneman and Tversky and is part of prospect theory.

Loss aversion causes a preference for options with smaller potential downside, even if those options have a lower expected value.

2/8

Loss aversion stops you from choosing certain options for fear of the losses you might incur.

It stops you from choosing things because you are afraid they won’t work out.

That’s why loss aversion stops you from starting.

3/8

Read 9 tweets

Annie Duke

@AnnieDuke

Oct 14

If you quit on time, it will usually feel like you are quitting too early.

1/5

Just as you can’t be 100% how things are going to turn out when you start something, you also can’t be 100% sure how things turn out when you are considering quitting it.

That makes it hard to quit while there is still a chance things could turn around.

2/5

When you are weighing whether to quit something or stick with it, you can’t know for sure whether you can succeed at what you’re doing because that’s probabilistic.

3/5

Read 5 tweets

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